Theresa May poised to become Britain's next prime minister

11 July 2016 - 17:36 By REUTERS
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Tory leadership contender Theresa May is a BDW, according to MP Ken Clarke.
Tory leadership contender Theresa May is a BDW, according to MP Ken Clarke.
Image: GETTY IMAGES

Current prime minister David Cameron said last month he would resign hours after failing in his bid to keep Britain in the European Union at a referendum.

The news of Leadsom's withdrawal from the race pushed up the value of sterling and British stocks on Monday.

Below are comments on the implications of Monday's events:

Pierre Moscovici, European Economics Commissioner, said the European Commission has not changed its position and the next prime minister would have to notify the EU formally that Britain is leaving the bloc under Article 50 of the EU treaty.

"We should open the negotiations as quickly as possible in order to limit uncertainty," he said, repeating that until notification was made, there could be no talks.

Daniel Vernazza, lead UK economist, UniCredit:

"In our view it's positive news for two main reasons. First, Leadsom was one of the faces of the 'Leave' campaign and was likely to favour a 'hard Brexit'; that is, meaningful restrictions on free movement that is simply incompatible with access to the single market. In contrast, Theresa May backed the campaign to remain in the EU and, although she has eurosceptic tendencies, it is widely thought that Theresa May is more likely to seek a 'soft Brexit' (sometimes called the 'Norwegian plus' option) from the EU, which maintains access to the European single market, including financial services, and some (crucially largely symbolic) restriction on free movement.

"Second, it avoids a two-month long leadership campaign and lifts one source of uncertainty in the UK. Leadsom risked splitting the Conservative Party and an early general election, in part because of her hard line on Brexit, and in part because she has little or no experience at the top level of government."

Allan Monks, an economist with J.P. Morgan:

"We have argued that there is a trade-off that exists between full access to the single market and the free movement of labour. Theresa May recognizes the existence of this trade-off and her position seems to be that taking control of UK borders and limiting migration is an important priority. If this means losing full access to the single market, then so be it. Nevertheless, relative to some Brexit campaigners, she may be willing to position herself on this trade-off at a slightly more favorable location for UK business."

Savvas Savouri, chief economist at $4 billion hedge fund firm Toscafund:

"If the question is do I want her to be prime minister, the answer is 'yes.' Someone who negotiates with the European Union has to be a Remainer but a tame Remainer. She was a Remainer but she was pretty lacklustre in her canvassing but she goes to Brussels and Strasbourg as a Remainer as opposed to a confrontational Boris Johnson or any other 'Exiters'. The question now is how she appoints her cabinet.

"Theresa May is heaped in experience. All of a sudden you remove the prospect of someone woefully inexperienced becoming prime minister, so that can't be a negative."

Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec:

"The good news is that this is one major uncertainty out of way. The bad news is that there are quite a few left.

"Assuming that Theresa May becomes prime minister she has a number of challenges in front of her. I think number one is to name a cabinet and a negotiating team on the EU... secondly, in particular in the cabinet, who is her choice of chancellor (finance minister) going to be. We may be more reliant on fiscal policy if there is a notable downturn in the economy, given there is relatively little room on monetary policy. And of course the uncertainties which are well-rehearsed ... on the economy generally and of course on the negotiations with the EU on our future arrangements, and that's not something which is going to be sorted out in anything like a hurry. Around that, you have the questions of the legality of invoking Article 50 without a parliamentary vote.

"We have got calm in the short term and it's quite notable that sterling has rallied given Andrea Leadsom's withdrawal from the race. But that's like crossing one stepping-stone across a very fast river. We have just embarked on that journey and it remains a highly uncertain one."

Ian Gunner, manager of Altana Hard Currency Fund:

"There are so many potential things on the table like: does parliament vote on it? Do we have another referendum? I think those things become a little more plausible with May as prime minister than they would have been under a Brexiteer.

"One interesting point is that this afternoon there's a question going to be asked in the (House of) Commons about the process by which Article 50 is triggered. ... If you suddenly see headlines like 'Parliament will vote', maybe sterling rallies on that because it opens up the possibility that they'll throw it back and ask for another referendum.

"We really are in unchartered waters. The leadership element is one small element."

Jake Trask, currency analyst at UKForex:

"Sterling pushed higher today as pro-Brexit candidate Angela Leadsom pulled out of the contest to be the next prime minister. GBP/USD pushed up through 1.30 on the news, but the rally is likely to be short-lived, as (Bank of England Governor) Mark Carney is expected to cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25 percent this Thursday.

"Should he decide to cut rates to zero, we will likely see another multi-year low for sterling as we head towards a probable recession in the second half of the year."

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