The story is often told of how the apartheid Security Branch was waiting for Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma at Jan Smuts Airport in 1990 - to arrest and torture him - after picking up intelligence that he was making his way into South Africa. Zuma was at the time head of ANC intelligence.

The team assigned to arrest Zuma started sending messages to their boss at the Union Buildings saying that he was in the country and his arrest was "imminent". It turns out Zuma had outsmarted the spooks. He was sitting at the Union Buildings with their boss.

Zuma's lack of formal education, his plodding style, his numerous mistakes in the romantic and marriage arena - all these lead those who take him on to think he will be a walkover. Even seasoned pugilists like Thabo Mbeki, Zuma's long-time comrade, but opponent at the 2007 Polokwane ANC national conference, made this mistake.

Mbeki thought Zuma would be taken out by the courts, or by middle-class blacks appalled by his sexual shenanigans, or by international opportunists worried by where South Africa would go when the man from Nkandla walked in.

It was a terrible miscalculation that led to humiliation and ignominy for Mbeki at Polokwane.

Zuma might know very little, as so many assume, but he is perfect at manipulating the workings of the party he has dedicated his life to. In the run-up to Polokwane, Zuma knew enough to ensure that every province and every branch of the ANC was controlled by him.

The press was not voting at Polokwane; the middle classes, appalled by his behaviour, were not voting either. It was the ordinary ANC branch delegates who had the right to vote. They were the focus of Zuma's mobilisation in the run-up to that conference. That was how he unseated Mbeki.

Now it might be Julius Malema who is underestimating Zuma. The ANC's young lion has, over the past few weeks, been traversing the country, complimenting Mbeki on his presidency in a clear dig at Zuma, commenting on polygamy and taking pot shots at the ANC leadership directly and at Zuma indirectly.

There is no doubt that someone is preparing to run against Zuma for the ANC presidency and Malema is preparing to back him if he has the gumption to raise his hand.

That potential challenger can be narrowed down to either Kgalema Motlanthe or Tokyo Sexwale. Whether they have the guts to take on Zuma at next year's conference is debatable.

They have both - Motlanthe before Polokwane and Sexwale during the past few months - proved to be flip-floppers - you can't tell if they are saying "yes" or "no".

They need to speak a little more clearly simply because, if they do not declare their candidacy in the next six months, power will have calcified around Zuma.

And there is a lot of power that Zuma can still draw on despite the belief of some, Malema and a few others included, that he is a man alone and isolated.

Zuma's stronghold electorally is KwaZulu-Natal. The ANC has been losing power everywhere in the country except in Zuma's home province where, in both the 2009 and the May 18 elections this year, the ANC experienced such a surge that losses elsewhere were compensated for.

KwaZulu-Natal , despite murmurings that Premier Zweli Mkhize has turned sour on Zuma, remains firmly in the hands of the man from Nkandla. Mkhize has comprehensively denied talk of a rift between himself and Zuma.

Zuma retains the support of other provinces, notably Mpumalanga, the Free State, Eastern Cape and even Malema's Limpopo.

This is a massive disadvantage for anyone wanting to get rid of Zuma. Plus, despite criticism from Zwelinzima Vavi, trade union federation Cosatu remains a Zuma poodle through and through. The SA Communist Party has become a branch of the Zuma-supporting wing of the ANC.

For Malema, with his bravado and loudness, the question becomes one of timing: whoever his candidate might be, he must declare himself early. Malema's hero, Peter Mokaba, managed to cut Cyril Ramaphosa out in 1997 by coming out very early for Mbeki.

If Motlanthe or Sexwale do not declare their candidacy in the next year, Zuma will have a year in which to move against Malema before he becomes a lame-duck president.

Given that Malema outsmarted him last time, Zuma will be going in for the kill. Malema should temper his tongue. Zuma is not a man to underestimate.