The Big Read: Alliance at the crossroads

The Sidikiwe-Vukani Vote No campaign is a confidence-building exercise ahead of efforts to launch a new left-leaning political party to run for office come 2019.

Over the years, commentators have spent barrels of ink speculating about what many saw as an inevitable break-up of the ruling ANC-led tripartite alliance.

The dominant view was always that the break-up would be neat, with Cosatu and the SACP abandoning the ANC and reconstituting themselves into a new workers' party that would fight elections on a socialist platform.

But now that the break-up appears imminent, it is becoming clear the process will be anything but neat and orderly.

Instead of a Cosatu that storms out of the alliance taking with it close to two million members, the federation is itself going to split in two - with the faction disillusioned with the ANC forming or joining a new political organisation.

Instead of the SACP drifting away from the ANC, we see its leaders getting even closer to it, and a number of its former leaders are increasingly taking an oppositionist stance.

Two such former SACP leaders, Ronnie Kasrils and Nozizwe Madlala-Routledge, rocked both Luthuli House and Cosatu House - where the SACP is based - when they called on traditional ANC voters unhappy with President Jacob Zuma's leadership to spoil their ballot papers.

Much has been said about Kasrils and Madlala-Routledge's Vote No campaign and the impact - or lack thereof - it would have on the outcomes of the May 7 elections.

Though it is true the campaign is unlikely to lead to a dramatic de crease in the number of those voting for the ANC in the upcoming poll, it should not be dismissed as a publicity-seeking stunt by two government have -beens who have a bone or two to pick with Zuma, the ANC and the SACP.

Instead, the move should be seen within the context of ongoing attempts - largely led by Cosatu's largest affiliate, Numsa - to form a new political front or political party that would fight the ANC in 2019 on a socialist ticket.

In the run-up to its special congress in December, Numsa started toying around with the idea of starting a workers' party canvassing for the creation of a broad socialist front to take on the ANC.

A series of high-profile meetings and "political schools" were convened by the union's leaders in a bid to sell the idea to members.

Kasrils addressed at least one such gathering in November - a month before Numsa took its historic decision not to support the ANC in this year's general election.

Despite recent efforts by the ANC - led by its deputy president and former unionist Cyril Ramaphosa - to reconcile Cosatu's warring factions, it is clear Numsa is determined to dump the tripartite alliance.

In a draft document prepared for its upcoming central committee meeting, Numsa says: "The door of the stable is open and the horses have bolted. We can't tamper with the formation of a movement for socialism.

"Workers and their trade unions like Numsa, which remains a trade union while being a catalyst for a movement for socialism, need a working-class party. This cannot be postponed any longer."

But before such a party can be launched, its proponents need a number of popular campaigns as a confidence-building exercise, as well as a way of testing the electorate's appetite for such a party.

What better way to do so than to call on citizens to deliberately spoil their ballots on election day?

If there is a high number of spoilt ballots on the day, campaign organisers would see this as a confirmation that the ANC's traditional constituencies are indeed eager for a party that propagates policies to the left of the ruling party.

Remember that, since 1994, there have been a number of socialist or worker parties that entered the race for parliamentary seats, only to fail to win the hearts and minds of voters.

But with struggle veterans such as Kasrils, Madlala-Routledge and others on their side, the founders of the new party would be hoping this would give the party legitimacy in the eyes of potential voters.

Without doubt, the proponents of a workers' party would have dealt the ANC a heavy blow had they taken the entire Cosatu constituency with them.

However, given the fact that a pro-ANC leadership is still firmly in control of the federation and most of its affiliates, their hope would be that when Numsa does eventually walk out of Cosatu, it takes with it a number of other affiliates.