Zuma steals the show

South Africans prepared themselves for five more years of rule by President Jacob Zuma as the ANC moved closer last night to re-election, with final results still awaited.

The ANC is assured of another solid victory but all indications were that its majority might be the smallest since 1994, and that it would not receive the two-thirds majority that would have empowered it to alter the constitution unilaterally.

But its expected majority of between 63% and 65% is a massive achievement in an election contested by almost 30 parties.

Zuma, wearing a bright yellow jacket, was in a convivial mood when he visited the Independent Electoral Commission's results centre in Pretoria last night, greeting his political rivals - except the Economic Freedom Fighters' representatives, whom he snubbed.

The million-dollar question now, say analysts, is whether the ANC's strong showing will encourage it to push ahead with the National Development Plan, grow the economy and create desperately needed jobs - or give in to pressure from its alliance partners who remain bitterly opposed to the growth blueprint.

Countrywide it was a good election for the DA, which showed strong growth, improving from 16.7% in 2009 to an expected final tally of between 22% and 23%.

The ANC was on course to retain its majority in eight of the nine provinces, surviving strong challenges from the DA in Gauteng and Northern Cape. By 9.30pm, the ANC had won 52.2% of the Gauteng vote, compared with the DA's 33.01%.

But Western Cape retained the DA's Helen Zille as premier by a strongly improved majority.

By 9.30pm the DA had secured 56.97% of the votes cast in the province. Its arch-rival, the ANC, which lost control of the province in 2009, had bagged 34.34%.

Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters seemed well on its way to becoming the third-largest party in the Western Cape legislature, albeit with a small margin, having secured 2.26% of the votes by 9.30pm.

The DA replaced COPE as official opposition in the Free State, Northern Cape and Eastern Cape, and retained its position as official opposition in Mpumalanga and Gauteng. But it lost out to the EFF, which will be the official opposition in North West and Limpopo.

Unless Malema is tripped up by legal issues, he should lead a team of about 20 MPs to parliament, with the EFF headed for about 5% of the vote. The party also did well in Gauteng, beating the ANC at some stations in Alexandra township.

All indications were that the DA would eclipse the IFP as the official opposition in KwaZulu-Natal.

The IFP was badly hurt by a remarkably strong showing by its spin-off party, the NFP.

The two biggest losers of the night were COPE, which will be greatly diminished in parliament, and Agang SA, whose leader, Dr Mamphela Ramphele, looks destined to be its only MP.

COPE leader Mosiuoa Lekota was also in danger of being his party's sole MP, although results by late last night suggested the party might win a second seat.

COPE had amassed just 0.70% of the national vote by 9.30pm, a poor showing compared with the 7.4% it captured in 2009.

Political analyst Moeletsi Mbeki attributed the ANC's continued dominance to the large number of unemployed people in its ranks.

''In 2009, Markinor [now Ipsos] did an extensive survey of who voted for the ANC and who voted for the DA in the previous national elections. They found that 70% of ANC voters did not have a job and had not finished high school.

"What this told me is that the ANC voter is essentially the African unemployed, underclass of poor people who are very dependent on the largesse of government - social grants and free meals at schools."

He said poor people were afraid they would lose grants if they voted for a party other than the ANC, even if that party did not win.

On the impact on the election of the Nkandla scandal, Mbeki said: "The average ANC voter is not in a position to choose between corrupt or not corrupt . Poor people don't want to take that risk of voting for someone else because they don't have other options for a livelihood."

Aubrey Matshiqi, a political analyst at the Helen Suzman Foundation, said the ANC's big victory showed voters distinguished between the president and the party.

"Nationally, Nkandla has never been a factor in [voter choices] simply because the majority of ANC supporters do understand that this was not a presidential election. They were voting for the ANC, not Zuma," said Matshiqi.

Analyst Daniel Silke asked if the ANC's dominant result meant it would now forge ahead with the National Development Plan. "They have the power on paper but do they have power in reality [to implement policies] or will they be hamstrung by conflicts within the alliance?

''Does the healthy election result give the ANC a clear mandate to implement aspects of the NDP to kickstart the economy?" he said.

Sincerest form of flattery

Ever heard of the African Independent Congress? It was the party listed next to the ANC on the ballot paper with a green, yellow, black and blue logo. And it garnered more votes than the African Christian Democratic Party, Agang SA or the Pan African Congress.

The ANC claims the votes were as a result of voters being confused but AIC president Mandla Galo said his party was ready to claim its seats.

Said Galo: "The masses are beginning to see the big picture and not allowing themselves to be misled by the elite."

The AIC was formed in 2005 in Matatiele. At the time the town was part of Eastern Cape despite fierce demands by residents who wanted to be returned to the jurisdiction of KwaZulu-Natal.

Galo said he looked forward to being "face to face" with President Jacob Zuma.

ANC spokesman Jackson Mthembu said: "I am here at the counting centre and I can see that that confusion is a reality."

He asked why the party received more than 71000 votes on the national ballot but only 14000 in Eastern Cape, where it is based.

"But there is nothing we can do. They have scored through the ANC," said Mthembu.

Penny Mashego, Nashira Davids and Philani Nombembe