Likelihood of huge mining job losses rising inexorably

The zero-sum game that is playing itself out on the platinum belt is about to get a whole lot uglier.

In coming days the three embattled producers - Amplats, Impala Platinum and Lonmin - are likely to go to court to get the longest and costliest mining strike in our history declared dysfunctional, and ultimately illegal.

If they succeed, the companies are likely to try to restart their operations - in the face of resolute opposition from militant union Amcu, which is refusing to budge from its demand that the wages of lowest-paid miners be more than doubled to R12 500 (excluding benefits) within four years.

The companies, which have lost R22-billion in earnings since the strike began on January 23, have seen their final offer of a five-year deal that would give entry-level workers monthly increases of R800 each year, up to 10%, rebuffed by Amcu.

The producers will now almost certainly soon start issuing retrenchment notices and closing marginal shafts.

Thousands of jobs will be permanently lost, bringing further misery to the miners' families and more devastation to the once-thriving mining hub of Rustenburg.

There is no doubt that any attempt to restart operations at the affected mines will result in violence - and the police and mine security will have to do their utmost to ensure that those miners who do want to work are protected.

One minority union - Solidarity - plans to ask the Constitutional Court to protect the rights of non-striking miners, and to order that the government guarantee the workers' safety.

Asking the courts to settle a wage dispute is not ideal but when all other avenues fail it is the only recourse.

As a country we cannot allow this destructive strike to continue for much longer.

It is already playing havoc with GDP growth, putting further pressure on the currency and making another ratings downgrade more likely.

Pretty soon jobs far removed from the mining sector will also be on the line.