What will sport look like in 2050?

A scientist colleague in Spain recently asked me to contribute a chapter to a book he is aiming to publish at the end of 2015. The concept is to predict what sport will look like 100 years from now.

That timeframe is so long that educated predictions are impossible. Think of how Hollywood portrays the future and ask how cricket, golf and tennis fit into that world, for instance? You'd need to invent totally new sports and make others extinct, factoring in commercial, technological and political forces that cannot possibly be forecast that far into the future. It's a fascinating philosophical and creative exercise.

It did get me thinking, however, about the same concept applied over a shorter timeframe. That is, what if we look three-and-a-half decades ahead, and ask what sport will look like in 2050?

I've yet to think it through in detail, but its intrigue is seen if we look at it from the other direction, and consider how sport looked 35 years ago, in 1980. Wooden tennis rackets had just been replaced by steel and graphite, whose lighter mass allowed the racket head to be made significantly larger. Strings evolved to allow more power and spin, resulting in the progressive development of a different sport with an entirely new type of player. Compare a typical rally at the current Australian Open to that of the 1980s to see this evolution.

One-day cricket and coloured clothing were in their infancy in 1980, but now exist together with 20-overs cricket (much to the disgust of the purists), and this, too, has changed the nature of the sport. When AB de Villiers or Chris Gayle flay admittedly weak opposition bowling attacks, it occurs to me that scoring 50 runs in fewer than 30 balls will become a requirement, rather than an exception, for batsmen in the future. The crossover of such "expectation evolution" has implications for the survival of longer forms of cricket, given our desire for entertainment, the competition for our precious time and our seemingly shrinking attention span.

Rugby was decidedly amateur 35 years ago, and professionalism has been the catalyst for its evolution. Players are significantly bigger and faster today than in 1980, rules have changed to facilitate more flow, and the speed and physicality of the game have increased predictably, to the point that the winners are those who best respond to the demands.

Geopolitically, countries that barely featured 35 years ago now dominate certain sports. Eastern Europeans in tennis, Kenyans in distance running and Jamaicans in sprint are examples of emergent sporting populations.

Those are four examples of how sport has changed, thanks to environmental forces ranging from technology to sociopolitical factors. Looking ahead, can we expect the same progression, or have we reached the point where these factors will only nudge, rather than transform, sport?

Technology will never stagnate, but it's difficult to see enormous breakthroughs like those of the 1980s given the investment already in sport. Indirectly, technology will likely assume a role in performance, with virtual simulators and advanced software to optimise every aspect of elite sport.

Directly too, gains will be marginal, not transformative. Adidas recently introduced a new cushioning material for running shoes, called "Boost", which provides greater energy return than previous materials. It has contributed to six of the seven fastest marathon performances in history. It's an example of technology perhaps influencing modern sport, but to the tune of 30 seconds over two hours, not the quantum leaps of tennis, golf and even cricket. However, given how competitive sport has become, these small nudges will be decisive in results, and no less important.

Commercial and political factors will continue to affect sport, but the world is now "flat" enough that I can't see a surprise new population emerging like Kenya or Jamaica did in athletics. Perhaps China or India will develop into a superpower by virtue of their economic and population size.

All intriguing questions, demanding more thought and future insights, and hopefully inspiring some braai and beer conversations.