More gloomy than ever

03 July 2015 - 02:24 By BDLive, Bloomberg

Consumer confidence in SA plummeted to a 14-year low in the second quarter of 2015 - thanks to power outages, higher fuel and maize prices, tax hikes and a slowdown in government spending. Having declined from zero to minus 4 in the first quarter, the First National Bank/Bureau for Economic Research's consumer confidence index declined further to minus 15.A sub-index, measuring sentiment on the future, plunged 14 points to minus 24, the lowest level since the 1992-1993 recession.Extremely low levels of consumer confidence mean consumer spending will be muted, which in turn knocks economic growth."Both the extent of the fall and the extraordinarily low level of consumer confidence points to a marked deceleration in the quarter-on-quarter growth in real household expenditure," FNB chief economist Sizwe Nxedlana said. "Real consumer spending is unlikely to grow faster than 2% during 2015."The minus 15 was not only far lower than the lowest reading of minus 6, recorded during the 2008-2009 recession, but was also only the second time since 1994 that the index had dropped below minus 12.The "financial position" and "time to buy durable goods" sub-indices declined by nine and 12 index points respectively.A change in labour laws at the beginning of the year that made it nearly impossible to hire workers for short periods might also have led to a drop in temporary employment and a decline in take-home pay, Nxedlana said.Five economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the index was released had predicted no change.Rising petrol prices and a weak rand pushed the inflation rate to 4.6% in May, threatening the central bank's 3% to 6% target. The bank has indicated it will raise the benchmark interest rate from 5.75% in coming months.Adding to the woes, South Africa's worst drought since 1992 is pushing up grain prices.The rand has weakened 5.6% against the dollar since the start of the year. ..

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