Ditching style for win

06 October 2015 - 02:05 By Ross Tucker

England's shock exit from their own Rugby World Cup completed the unwanted hat-trick. England failed to advance from the pool stages of the last football and cricket World Cups.But South Africa did to Samoa and Scotland what was expected before the tournament, and the aberration against Japan is now a memory replaced by future ambition.Australia look ominous, France and Ireland move towards their showdown and the All Blacks are being analysed as though they've lost three matches, such has been the celebration of opposition who didn't get beaten as badly as expected.As the tournament progresses into the knockout phases, decision-making and style of play will become more decisive to the outcome.Yes, we've already seen how decisions to opt for line-outs rather than penalty points influenced two match outcomes, but I'm speaking more of the strategic and tactical approach.I noted that Conrad Smith, New Zealand's experienced centre, spoke this week about New Zealand's style of play. The All Blacks took on Georgia as though every player was fuelled by 10 shots of pre-match espresso, but Smith revealed to the media that their expansive game was their way of "trying to get out of the pool matches" and that they'd be adjusting from the quarterfinals onwards, to play, presumably, far more conservatively.It's a surprising admission, both for its honesty, and also the strategy of trying to adopt what will ostensibly be a different tactical approach that would not have been exposed to pressure opposition since they played Australia months ago.One team that will not be changing their approach is Ireland. I recently saw data from World Rugby's performance analysis unit that showed how Ireland's style of play changed dramatically three years ago. They went from being a possession-orientated team, who played through phases, to a team that kicks often, dominates territory, but willingly concedes possession. Fewer passes and phases, and a large increase in the number of kicks and tackles made are but some of the symptoms of this shift in attitude. It is one that holds that pressure is created through defence and territory, rather than actually having possession of the ball. This was done purely with the World Cup in mind, and is implemented around the fulcrum of their halfback pairing, Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton.Why might this attitude exist? There is a perception that World Cups are won by good defence and kicks. Certainly, World Cup finals support this. With the exception of 1999 (when Australia beat France 35-12 (France had played their "final" a week earlier, famously beating the All-Blacks), the scoreboard difference in the last four tournaments has been three, three, nine and one point. Strictly speaking, two of those were draws decided by extra-time dropgoals, and thus the average World Cup final margin is less than one penalty or drop goal.There is thus a premium on a style of play that can contain opposition, and earn and convert penalties into points. It is a style of play that Jake White used so effectively to win the 2007 World Cup. In that tournament, when we beat England 36-0 in the pool phase, we did so with only 30% of the ball. We suffocated their 70% and turned errors into 36 points. By the time of the final, England were much improved, but South Africa won relatively comfortably, despite making over 200 tackles (the average is about 90).The 2015 Springboks which have beaten Samoa and Scotland have reverted to that style. We use locks, props and flanks as first-receivers from rucks, and the flyhalf and outside centre rarely see the ball.It is, to use a euphemism, "winning rugby" but the entertainment value of the game suffers...

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