Putin's dangerous game could backfire

06 October 2015 - 02:05 By ©The Daily Telegraph

Vladimir Putin's decision to begin bombing targets in Syria has left political pundits in Washington and London wondering exactly what Russia's strategic goal is in the Middle East. Aside from propping up Bashar al-Assad's regime, the presence in Syria of Russian war planes flying missions against opposition targets marks the biggest deployment of Moscow's forces in the region since the disastrous Soviet intervention in Afghanistan.Then, as now, oil had a big part to play in the Kremlin's decision to strike. In 1979, as Russian tanks rolled into Kabul, the price of oil was approaching $110 a barrel.High oil prices helped the creaking communist government finance its Cold War against the West in addition to feeding its population at home. Then, as now, oil exports were vital for Moscow's coffers, accounting for almost 70% of the country's foreign currency earnings.By placing boots on the ground in Afghanistan the Soviet Union also threatened the West's vital energy corridor in the Gulf.The Soviets hoped their military presence in the region would keep oil prices high enough for the country to win the Cold War.But the strategy failed. The collapse of oil prices in the following decade bankrupted the Kremlin and forced Mikhail Gorbachev to launch the reforms that eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet empire.Putin is today faced with the same dilemma as his Soviet forebears. The collapse in oil prices, which has been engineered by the US's major allies in the region - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait - is crippling the Russian economy.Russia is now in recession for the first time since 2009 and if oil prices continue to average below $50 a barrel for the next year it is likely that even the long-suffering Russian people will question Putin's leadership.Of course, Russia's intervention in Syria could result in all sides involved in the oil-price war driving the cost of a barrel even lower. The outcome of such a battle of attrition could be the collapse of the governments in Riyadh and Moscow. ..

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