Interest rate hike has me on the run

26 November 2015 - 02:05 By David Shapiro

Going on long wandering runs is a time of peace and solitude for me. It's a time where I can retreat deep into my own thoughts and tackle life's challenges. At my age, though, I have scrapped my Garmin, my slow pace becoming more depressing than even the complex issues I mull over in my mind.On Sunday morning, after paging through the newspapers, I headed out into the suburbs fathoming why the Reserve Bank had chosen to raise rates last week, and why their action to avoid second-round effects received such wide support from the majority of economic commentators. If the decision was to save the rand, then anyone who has monitored the currency over the past few years is acutely aware that its severe decline is not the consequence of interest rate differentials between the rand and the dollar but of our feeble growth prospects, barriers to reform, low productivity levels and shameful governance standards, all of which are expected to endure.But I am the first to concede that, although a number of people in the media refer to me as an economist, I'm an accountant, whose majors at university were accounts, tax and auditing. The cash book is my area of speciality and not high-level, monetary economics.I tend to construct client portfolios around my knowledge of companies and my familiarity with markets. When a corporation publishes its results, I start my analysis by reading the prospects statement and then work backwards through the commentary, segmental analysis, cash flow and income statements and finally the balance sheet. I believe you learn a lot more about the business environment from studying a firm's financials than from working through piles of official statistical data.We are currently in the midst of the September reporting season, and, reflecting broadly on results, conditions in the country are extremely tough and likely to remain so in the near future. Last week Mr Price's CEO, Stuart Bird, told reporters that the economy is not in good shape and consumer confidence is understandably low.Similar sentiments were echoed by the management of poultry producer, Astral, who expressed concerns about slowing growth, high unemployment and the impact of the drought on crop yields. Tsogo reported that poor macroeconomic conditions and weak consumer sentiment were putting pressure on the gaming group's revenue, while food producer, Tiger Brands declared that low domestic growth, rising costs and job security were weighing on the consumer.More telling was PPC's assessment that declining commodity prices, the restrictive labour environment and general policy uncertainty would dissuade the corporate sector from embarking on major capacity expansion, especially in the mining and manufacturing sectors, harming demand for cement and the overall prospects for the construction industry.One does not need an economics degree to infer that our economy is fraught with dangers. Households are under pressure, burdened with the prospect of increasing food and electricity prices.Businesses are battling similar issues, a situation exacerbated by growing uncertainty in the mining and manufacturing sectors.With our growth prospects half the global average, confidence in the country is rock bottom.The mood is hardly one where you would expect industry to risk lifting prices or consumers to splash out lavishly and pay up for goods.Why then the need to raise interest rates? You figure it out...

There’s never been a more important time to support independent media.

From World War 1 to present-day cosmopolitan South Africa and beyond, the Sunday Times has been a pillar in covering the stories that matter to you.

For just R80 you can become a premium member (digital access) and support a publication that has played an important political and social role in South Africa for over a century of Sundays. You can cancel anytime.

Already subscribed? Sign in below.



Questions or problems? Email helpdesk@timeslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00.