The amount of money the country needs to spend on HIV programmes every year will keep on increasing for the next 20 years. And if we don't spend more soon and increase prevention efforts, economists have warned that costs of the nationwide programme will keep on rising "forever".But if the country keeps the current 3.1million people on treatment, adds those who qualify for treatment under the current policy and increases circumcisions and condom supply, then costs will begin to drop by 2024.Economists and health experts from Wits University - in collaboration with Boston University and the University of Cape Town - modelled what the HIV prevention and treatment programme will cost for the next 20 years.The Department of Health and the SA National Aids Council were also involved in the 18-month study.The scientists reviewed evidence on all treatment and HIV prevention interventions and worked out the best responses to the epidemic based on the most cost-effective ways of preventing more infections and deaths from Aids."If we simply do what we are doing now we will be spending more every single year forever," warned Wits researcher Professor Gesine Meyer-Rath."If we ramp up the treatment and cost-effective prevention interventions, then costs will decrease."South Africa already has an extensive Aids programme that keeps 3.1million people on HIV treatment for life, she added.The budget for tackling HIV for the 2016/17 financial year is already R21.7-billion, including government and donor contributions.But the WHO has other ideas. It promotes testing everyone who is HIV-positive and putting them on ARV treatment - with "90-90-90" targets, which means 90% of positive people know their status and are on treatment."If we want to go to 90-90-90 targets then we will be spending a lot more money in the next 15 years," Meyer-Rath said...