Rainy cycle back as El Niño goes off the boil

25 May 2016 - 09:07 By SIPHO MASOMBUKA and BLOOMBERG

El Niño has ended. The tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state and outlooks suggest little chance of indicators returning to El Niño levels, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on its website yesterday.That means mid-May marks the end of the event that reduced Indian rainfall, parched farmland in Asia and curbed cocoa production in parts of Africa.In South Africa agricultural economists predict food prices, which shot up by 29% in some instances, will ease off in the next cycle and as the weather improves.Senior agricultural economist at Absa, Wessel Lemmer, said the country's farmers emerged from the drought resilient, adding that the bank's lending risk assessment had shown net income from production would increase.Lemmer said with the grip of El Niño loosening, farmers would be able to replenish their grain stock."Good rain is predicted from October to March next year, with the maize price expected to decline."Large-scale commercial farmers had planned for the drought by putting more in the bank and planting less, unlocking the savings to replenish their production for next season, Lemmer said.Ferdi Meyer, director of the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, said South Africa was "almost a success story"."Our area of planting has declined by almost 10% over the last 10 years but our yields have grown by 50% in the same time. It is because of an intensified, more competitive approach."Meyer said the main concern was the impact of the drought on the price of a basket of staple food, which he said increased by 29% in some instances."That amounts to about an R82 a month increase in the household expenditure on basic food staples," Meyer said...

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