Risky times for rand

31 May 2016 - 09:28 By Bloomberg, BDpro

Emerging-market currencies fell, extending their worst monthly decline since August, as mounting signs that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in June and July diminished the allure of higher-yielding assets. Asian currencies led the retreat after Fed chairman Janet Yellen said the strengthening US economy would probably warrant an increase in borrowing costs "in the coming months".The rand depreciated for a second day and a gauge of stocks in the Gulf Co-operation Council dropped to a three-month low as Brent crude slipped further below $50 a barrel. China weakened the yuan fixing as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended its biggest monthly advance since September 2014. The closure of UK and US markets for holidays diminished trading volumes.Fed Funds futures jumped on Friday after Yellen's comments supported the possibility for one to two US rate increases this year, with odds of a hike by July climbing to 54% yesterday from 26% at the start of May. Developing-nation shares have fallen in five of the past six weeks as investors shifted out of riskier assets, paring the MSCI Emerging Markets Index's 2016 gain to 1.7%."People are digesting Yellen's speech," said Guillaume Tresca, a senior emerging-market strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Paris, who recommends selling high-yielding developing-market currencies such as the rand against the dollar."There's been a repricing of Fed rate-hike expectations, so the environment will be less supportive for emerging markets in the days ahead."The JSE closed higher yesterday as resources and industrials firmed while gold and platinum shares weakened.It was the third consecutive closing high this year for the all share. Trading was thin due to public holidays in the UK and US.Rand hedges received support from the softer rand, which weakened against the dollar to trade at R15.84/$1 by the JSE's close, from R15.67 previously.Platinum and gold stocks were weaker due to low commodity prices. At the JSE's close the platinum price had weakened further below $1000 an ounce, to $967, after having lost nearly 2% on Friday. ..

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