Nice surprise in inflation

23 June 2016 - 09:43 By Reuters

You may not believe it, but headline consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed in May, adding to recent data that could prompt the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates on hold at its policy meeting next month. The bank has raised the repo rate by a cumulative 75 basis points so far this year, continuing a tightening cycle that started in early 2014 to rein in inflationary pressures.It kept rates on hold at its last two meetings despite inflation persisting above a 3% to 6% target band, inhibited by sluggish growth, which it expects to be just 0.6% this year.Stats SA said yesterday that headline consumer inflation was at 6.1% year-on-year in May, just slightly above the target, compared with 6.2% in April, backing the case for the central bank to hold rates at 7% at its meeting next month.Month-on-month inflation also braked to 0.2% compared with 0.8% in April.Core inflation - which excludes the prices of food, nonalcoholic beverages, petrol and energy and is also closely monitored by the bank - was unchanged at 5.5% year on year.Economists polled by Reuters expected headline consumer inflation to quicken to 6.4% year-on-year in May."The weaker-than-expected inflation reading for May will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank," Capital Economics senior emerging markets analyst William Jackson said."Further ahead, if we're right in thinking that inflation will stay above target and the economy will eke out some positive growth, additional rate hikes are likely by the end of 2016."Policymakers are keen to avert a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of contraction - after the economy shrank by 1.2% in the first three months of the year due to weakening output in the mining and agriculture sectors.The rand held largely stable against the dollar after the data, with investors mainly focused on today's referendum on whether Britain should stay in the EU. ..

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