'Madiba magic' can pull SA out of gloom

30 June 2016 - 09:03 By ARON HYMAN

The Rainbow Nation will become just another coloured smudge on Africa's map unless a little "Madiba magic" is conjured up. According to a new report released by the Institute for Security Studies, the country's atmosphere of doom and gloom is likely to continue until at least 2019. South Africans should brace itself for fracking, a nuclear energy deal, a surge in political violence and slow economic growth.However, there is hope, depending who wins the battle within the ANC - the "traditionalists", who are loyal to President Jacob Zuma, or the "reformers".Jakkie Cilliers, ISS head of African futures and innovations, said unrest similar to that seen in Tshwane recently was likely to change over the next month from violence within the ANC to inter- party violence, particularly between the ANC and the EFF and especially in Gauteng."In the past, South Africa has not had electoral violence, but previously the IEC was well respected. There was no question about its independence and integrity," said Cilliers.The ISS released a similar outlook ahead of the 2014 elections and it was uncannily accurate - to within 1% of the actual result.The current report outlines three scenarios for South Africa leading up to the 2024 election, namely:Mandela Magic - the best scenario;Bafana Bafana - an uninspiring trudge during which nothing much changes; andNation Divided - the worst scenario."We are somewhere between 'Nation Divided' and 'Bafana Bafana'. There is no leadership, there's no vision, there's policy incoherence," said Cilliers. The "Mandela Magic" scenario would see South Africa implementing good policies, but this depends on the "reformers" in the ANC defeating the "traditionalists" in the ANC elective conference in December next year.Economist Daniel Silke said the elective conference would create the perfect opportunity for Zuma to bow out."We may well be in the last year of Zuma's presidency. I don't think a dual centre of power approach will be preferable for the ANC, especially in the run-up to a more competitive 2019 election," said Silke."A lot will hinge on August 3 [local government elections], and I think the ANC may well perform more poorly than Jakkie Cilliers suggests."If the swing vote goes to the DA, Silke said, the opposition party could "embarrass" the ANC in a metro other than Cape Town...

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