NOW that the Rio Olympic and Paralympic cycles are over, it's time to look ahead to the 2024 Olympic Games. No, not the 2020 Games in Tokyo, because those medals are 90% decided already - if you're not already in a system, on the right trajectory, your chances of making the 2020 Olympics, let alone medalling, are very small indeed. NOW that the Rio Olympic and Paralympic cycles are over, it's time to look ahead to the 2024 Olympic Games. No, not the 2020 Games in Tokyo, because those medals are 90% decided already - if you're not already in a system, on the right trajectory, your chances of making the 2020 Olympics, let alone medalling, are very small indeed.And so we should always work in two overlapping four-year cycles, one to deliver, one to prepare. The 2016 Olympic Games has been celebrated as a success, primarily on the back of the euphoria of a world record for Wayde van Niekerk, dominant gold for Caster Semenya, and a host of other medallists.The Paralympians, too, were hailed for their 17 medals in what has become a customary myopic South African past-time of losing perspective by comparing the Paralympic medal haul to the Olympic medal. This time around, the Paralympians "won", 17-10. In 2012, it was 29-6. In 2008, 30-1.Our Paralympians have always won more medals . And as usual, we have no idea how to interpret this, preferring wild hyperbole and ignorance to proper insight.Let's first commit to separating the two entirely. They are parallel, not continuous, and so the direct comparison is pointless. I've written before about the reasons for this - mainly it's because the Paralympic Games are at a totally different stage of their "life-cycle", and given some of the technical challenges of disability sport, they are not yet as globalised, competitive and deep as the Olympic Games.So let's keep the events of August separate from the September Paralympic Games. This is the number sequence you need to know: 38 - 35 - 30 - 29 - 17. That's South Africa's total medal haul at the last five Paralympic Games, going back to Sydney 2000.That's not a good trend. In 2000, we won one medal for every 44 handed out. In Rio 2016, it's one in 94. That's actually the same as our Olympic medal return in 2016 - we won one medal for every 97 awarded.The point is, our Paralympians used to occupy a world-leading place but as the rest of the world have improved, we have not matched them, and by 2024, unless we change something, we will be in the single digits for medals.Why might that be? For the same reason that the Paralympics are not directly comparable to the Olympic Games - they're at totally different life stages. And the problem when a sport (or any "industry" or domain) is less mature, is that it's also growing more rapidly, and if you don't respond to that growth, then you're going to be left behind. That is what is happening to South Africa's Paralympic performers.A history lesson is important here - a big part of the reason SA did so well in the early Paralympic Games from 1996 is that we got a head start on the world because in Stellenbosch, a pocket of world-class expertise had grown under the leadership of the university's professors Liz Bressan, Elmarie Terreblanche, and later Suzanne Ferreira.That, plus a relatively progressive attitude towards people with disabilities, meant that our Paralympic standard, relative to the world, was already high from the start. We had good coaches, specific expertise in people with disabilities and a system that helped to identify and enable those athletes.However, as the prestige in the Paralympic Games has increased, more nations have begun to design systems to do exactly the same things we were doing 20 years ago. China, the UK, the US, have all actively pursued more Paralympic medals while we have kept doing the same things with the same people and support as we did in 2000.China, in particular, is instructive. They won 73 medals in 2000. By 2004 it was 141, then 211, 231 and 239 in Rio. That's progress, and that's where our medals are going. We've been outplayed by proactive strategy.Success does not follow when you do the same things today that got success yesterday, especially when your rivals do new things. But if you keep looking the wrong way, you never notice it...