Analysis: Buzzwords are proxies in the factional battle at ANC policy conference

The ANC might continue to insist that the policy conference has absolutely nothing to do with the party’s leadership succession‚ but the reality is that the policy indaba is about who will next take the seat of power.

Don’t let the clamour of many pretenders to the throne confuse you‚ the leadership contest is a two-horse race. Either current ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa or former African Union Commission leader Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma will stand triumphant in the end.

Like we saw 10 years ago when branch delegates gathered in Midrand to debate policy‚ sometimes the buzzwords of the moment serve as proxies for the ideological contest between contending factions.

In 2007‚ the idea of “two centres of power” was all the rage‚ and those opposed to Thabo Mbeki’s third term warned that it was not desirable for the incumbent of Luthuli House to be different to the occupant of the Union Buildings. This would fragment political power and cause problems for the party‚ they argued at the time.

Ultimately‚ they won the debate and Zuma took to the helm a few months later.

ANC National Treasurer Zweli Mkhize reckons that it is “mischievous” to see the current debate about “white monopoly capital” versus the dangers of “state capture” as the dry run for the elective conference.

But it is not surprising that Zuma‚ who is deep in the pockets of the Gupta family‚ made light of the problem of state capture in his opening speech by suggesting that “we need a thorough-going analysis of the South African political economy so that we can understand what is meant by state capture”.

It also worth noting that those who support Zuma‚ and by extension Dlamini-Zuma‚ are among those who are most vocal about the role white monopoly capital is alleged to be playing in our politics.

For example‚ ANC Youth League leader Collen Maine told The Times that they wanted the party to modify its “Strategy and Tactics” document so that it identifies white monopoly capital as the enemy of the kind of society the ANC is striving to bring about.

The Young Lions seem to have no memory of the fact it is reviving a debate that was settled in 2007 when the party recognised that it didn’t make sense to label big business as an enemy whilst mobilising it to invest in the economy.

KwaZulu-Natal ANC leader Sihle Zikalala‚ whose province is said to favour Dlamini-Zuma‚ wants the role of white monopoly capital to take centre stage in the debates about radical economic transformation. Interestingly‚ he also argues that whoever succeeds Zuma must be a leader who will champion change in various sectors of the economy that are still dominated by big players‚ like mining and banking.

“We must elect leaders who are equal to the task of that time. For us as KwaZulu-Natal‚ the strategic task of the current period is about radical economic transformation…We need that kind of leadership‚ not people who will stall progress and get satisfied by the status quo‚” he says.

Zikalala believes that the ANC should seek the support of parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters for whatever legislative changes the governing party might need to effect to speed up change‚ and reckons that the ANC lost an opportunity when it shot down the EFF’s Parliamentary proposal to change the constitution to enable the state to seize land without compensating the owners.

Interestingly‚ KwaZulu-Natal also wants a deal to be struck that will enable whoever loses the leadership contest to automatically become the deputy president. Previously‚ losing candidates are sent to the political wilderness. It remains to be seen though if the Ramaphosa camp will accept this proposal. There’s still a possibility that he might choose a prominent female running mate to counter groupings like ANC Women’s League which prefer a woman to succeed Zuma.

It is not far-fetched then to suggest that we will get a sense of the state of play in the party next three days as the 4000 delegates conclude the policy debates. Watch this space.

• Sabelo Ndlangisa is a journalist and former deputy editor of Drum