The Next World War … may be closer than we think

Written by veteran Reuters journalist Peter Apps, The Next World War was published in early 2026, shortly before the US-Israeli attack on Iran.

The book promises to take readers behind the scenes of the most dangerous era of international tensions since the end of the Cold War, as countries and military forces prepare for potential large-scale combat on a scale unseen since 1945.

However, in the months since its publication, the world has become a vastly more dangerous and unstable place, making Apps’ book even more relevant than before.

“Several people have asked me how likely I believe a major war to be,” Apps writes. “My personal belief is that the risk stands at around 30-35% over the coming decade — and the actions that the West and its allies take in the years to come will dictate whether war becomes more likely or not.”

After the attack on Iran, Apps is sure to have increased the odds, and he even suggests that, in some parts of the world, by the end of 2024, there was a growing view that a new world war had in fact already started — and was in the process of escalating and spreading from Ukraine to elsewhere.

“As recently as the late 2010s, the idea the world might genuinely be approaching another major war would still have been seen as scaremongering at best,” Apps writes, noting rising tensions between China and the US, and Russia becoming less interested in playing by the West’s rules.

“With hindsight, though, the Kremlin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and, perhaps most importantly, the indicators of the waning power of the US, should all have been seen as warning signs,” he notes. “As in the early Cold War years, the world looks as if it’s entering a cycle in which repeated and sometimes overlapping crises can fuel repeated escalation.”

Apps goes on to analyse flashpoints from Ukraine to Taiwan. The Middle East, Russia and China form the main focus of Apps’ book, but he does also cover conflict in the Global South, from Ethiopia to Libya and Sudan, and also highlights an “Axis of Upheaval” alliance of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea challenging US-led powers.

However, with US President Donald Trump creating instability in the Middle East, one could argue that the US should be included in this Axis, especially with the superpower having apparently set its sights on Greenland, Cuba and other territories.

Evolving nature of warfare

Beyond geographical flashpoints, the author also examines the evolving nature of warfare, including AI, drones, cyber and “hybrid” warfare, the latter of which targets infrastructure such as energy facilities, data centres, undersea cables, transport modes and even sewerage systems.

Hybrid warfare has the potential to inflict considerable hardship on civilian populations, and threats from both Iran and Israel to target power stations and desalination plants show how real the prospect of this kind of warfare is.

Ukraine has already suffered enormously from hybrid-warfare attacks on its power grid, among other assaults. Indeed, Ukraine features prominently in The Next World War, as it is at the forefront of new military technologies, such as drones, and the tactics that come with them.

Apps also looks at the return of Cold War-style atomic threats, emphasising that the propensity for using nuclear weapons has not been as high since the Cold War. “The prospect of the world being torn apart by multiple atomic blasts is once again no longer unimaginable,” he writes, especially as tensions between nuclear neighbours such as India and Pakistan are palpable.

“The second quarter of the 21st century is likely to be extremely unforgiving for those nations who are not willing and able to defend what they hold dear, whether that applies to territorial integrity or values such as free speech and democracy,” Apps writes.

“If Russian and Chinese leaders in the coming years believe they can take something by force, then they will try to do so — and perhaps unleash catastrophe,” he warns. The same can be said of the US at the moment.

Apps believes a major global war might be more likely in the coming years, but “like that first Cold War, if luck and common sense could hold, it might yet be postponed and deterred indefinitely”.

On a somewhat optimistic note, he believes the current era is already an even riskier time than the beginning of the first Cold War — “but the example of that period shows that conflict is avoidable when the right preparations are made and allies stick together.”

With the conflict in Iran probably shaping up to be one of the most significant geopolitical events since the end of the Cold War, with far-reaching consequences, Apps’ message is extremely timely and relevant, and his book is a must-read for anyone trying to navigate today’s uncertain and unstable world.