Motorists are likely to face steep fuel price hikes in April as surging global oil prices, a weaker rand and looming tax increases drive costs to budget-breaking highs.
Escalating tension in the Middle East, along with pressure on key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed crude prices up. Brent crude was trading just below $103 a barrel at the time of writing, while South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel leaves it particularly exposed to these global shocks. At the same time, a softer local currency — at about R16.66 to the dollar — is making fuel imports more expensive.
Adding to the pressure, finance minister Enoch Godongwana recently announced a 21c/l increase in the general fuel levy during his February 2026 budget speech. This will take effect in April as part of the next fuel price adjustment.
According to the latest daily data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the price of 93-octane petrol is set to climb by around R4.27/l, while 95-octane petrol could increase by about R4.74/l. Diesel users may be hit even harder, with the wholesale price of 50ppm diesel projected to jump by R7.83/l and 500ppm diesel by roughly R7.73/l.
If these projections hold, motorists will pay — including the higher fuel levy — R24.67/l for 93-octane petrol and R25.25/l for 95-octane inland (R24.42/l at the coast). The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel could reach R26.64/l inland (R25.88/l at the coast), while 500ppm diesel may rise to R26.47/l (R25.64/l coastal).
Knock-on effects
Higher fuel prices are expected to ripple through the broader economy. Diesel underpins much of South Africa’s freight and agricultural transport, while both petrol and diesel are widely used by taxis, buses and delivery fleets.
Sharp increases at the pumps typically translate into higher public transport fares and rising food prices, as the cost of moving goods from farms and factories to retailers climbs.
These concerning knock-on effects have prompted industry bodies to question how South Africa can reduce its exposure to volatile international oil prices. The Road Freight Association, in particular, has suggested exploring greater use of locally produced synthetic fuels, such as ethanol derived from KwaZulu-Natal’s sugar cane industry. This, it argues, could support job creation while improving energy security.
Industry stakeholders have also called for expanded electric vehicle infrastructure and incentives, as well as consideration of a temporary freeze on the general fuel levy to help cushion consumers. At the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, when oil prices similarly surged, the department of mineral resources and energy and the Treasury introduced a temporary R1.50 reduction in the general fuel levy to soften the effect. Some in the sector have questioned why a similar intervention is not being reconsidered given the current conditions.
Despite the sharp increases indicated, the outlook could shift before month-end as oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate continue to fluctuate.
Final adjustments will be confirmed by the department at the end of March, with the official April fuel prices set to take effect on April 1.
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