An electric vehicle needs six times the amount of mineral resources than a conventional car, but is there enough lithium to meet the demand? And to reach net zero, there needs to be two-billion EVs on the road by 2050.
These stats have been shared by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which says the world could face lithium shortages by 2025 due to the rising demand from EVs.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol says the data shows a looming mismatch between the world’s strengthened climate ambitions and the availability of critical minerals essential to realising those ambitions.
“The challenges are not insurmountable, but governments must give clear signals about how they plan to turn their climate pledges into action.”
Dr Tanya Lane-Visser, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Centre for Transport Studies at UCT, tells Sowetan Motoring the environmental burden of EVs is higher than internal combustion engines (ICE) during production, but during the use phase, EVs outperform ICE significantly in terms of environmental impact.
Additionally, the reuse, recycling and remanufacturing potential of batteries adds significant environmental benefits from the recycling stage of EVs.
“Combining the latter two phases of the EV life cycle compensates for losses during the production stage, yielding EVs a more environmentally friendly alternative when compared over its full life cycle in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.”
Unfortunately, EVs are inferior to ICE vehicles in terms of human toxicity potential and mineral resource consumption, adds Lane-Visser. “These findings have been consistently confirmed by various research studies in recent years.
“A debate on the relative importance of global warming potential vs human toxicity levels and resource consumption is required to determine which solution is better, in a holistic sense, for the planet and its inhabitants.”
IEA data shows EV sales in 2019 were 2.2-million, which made up 2.5% of global car sales, and in 2021, it reached 6.6-million. This more than tripled its market share within two years, representing 9% of global car sales with a net growth in car sales coming from EVs.
Not only are EV production and sales growing at a rapid rate, with mineral resources in short supply, but there is also a question of whether meeting these demands is a violation of human rights.
The World Economic Forum’s Ian Shine says lithium supply faces challenges not only from surging demand, but because resources are concentrated in a few places and more than half of today’s production is in areas with high water stress.
“Lithium extraction requires very high volumes of water and this is leading to problems around water stress — a situation where a region’s water resources are not enough to meet its needs.”
This is particularly concerning given that a lot of lithium is found in drought-prone regions such as South America and Australia. “Bolivia’s San Cristóbal mine reportedly uses 50,000 litres of water a day and lithium mining companies in Chile have been accused of depleting vital water supplies.”
In addition to water shortages, the IEA says several major producing regions such as Australia, China and Africa are also subject to other forms of climate risk, including extreme heat or flooding, which pose challenges to ensuring reliable and sustainable supplies.
Lane-Visser says the alternative lithium extraction methods that can be used in lithium production are highly energy intensive, and additionally, cobalt needs to be mined to produce lithium-ion batteries. “A major portion of the world’s cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where human rights abuses, unsafe work environments and the use of child labour abounds.
“As a first step to tackling this issue, companies are pursuing new technologies to cut water use and green their operations, and there is even talk of responsible mining certification,” she adds.
But the most promising solutions are touted in research on battery alternatives to replace lithium-ion batteries, says Lane-Visser, and if these come to fruition — there is promising evidence in the literature — the future for EVs look even more promising as being a truly sustainable alternative to fossil-based transport.
“Scientists are also exploring the potential of replacing cobalt in battery designs with more abundant metals, such as iron and manganese. Lithium might also be replaced by iron or silicon in the future, which will negate some of the negative environmental and social impacts associated with EVs.”
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