Fuel price set to climb in October, thanks to Saudi attacks

South African fuel prices are set to climb in October in the wake of the mid-September drone attacks on the Abqaiq oil refinery in Saudi Arabia.

This is according to the Automobile Association (AA), which says that although oil prices ticked up in the first two weeks of September, the impact of the attacks caused a further sharp price spike.

The current picture predicts an increase of about 19c a litre for 95 octane petrol, with diesel set to rise by 25c and illuminating paraffin by 24c. The AA says 93 octane petrol is bucking the trend, though, and will likely decline by 4c a litre.

"The landed price of fuels in SA jumped by as much as R1 a litre in just three days after the attack, before settling back slightly. This turned a generally stable price picture into a negative one," said the AA.

The association says that the rand performed fairly strongly against the US dollar during much of September, helping to offset some of the impact of increased oil prices.

"Without the rand's performance, we could have been looking at price rises in excess of 40c a litre for some fuels," commented the AA.

The association echoed its mid-month warning that large oil refineries and storage depots had now proven difficult to defend against sneak attacks, and repeated its concern that copycat attacks could lead to further unpredictable price shocks for liquid fuels.

"SA's transport economy is underpinned by liquid fuels and is extremely vulnerable to price impacts and fuel shortages. The government should urgently prioritise mitigations to protect against the potential of conflict-related instability in oil supply and pricing," the AA concludes.