Global CO2 emissions to hit record high in 2024: report

Global carbon dioxide emissions, including those from burning fossil fuels, are set to hit a record high this year, pulling the world further off course from averting more destructive climate extremes, scientists said on Wednesday.

The Global Carbon Budget report, published during the UN's COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, said global CO₂ emissions are set to total 41.6-billion metric tons in 2024, up from 40.6-billion tons last year.

The bulk of the emissions are from burning coal, oil and gas. The emissions would total 37.4-billion tons in 2024, up by 0.8% in 2023, the report said.

The rest are from land use, a category that includes deforestation and forest fires. The report by more than 80 institutions was led by the University of Exeter in Britain.

"We don't see a sign of fossil fuel emissions peaking in 2024," said lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter.

Without immediate and steep emissions cuts worldwide, "we will go straight into the 1.5ºC target. We'll just pass it and continue," he said.

Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to stop global temperatures rising more than 1.5ºC to avoid climate change's worst impacts.

This would require steep emissions cuts every year from now until 2030 and beyond.

Instead, fossil fuel emissions have climbed over the past decade. Land use emissions  declined in this period until this year, when a severe drought in the Amazon caused forest fires, driving up annual land use emissions by 13.5% to 4.2-billion tons.

Some scientists have said such slow progress means the 1.5ºC aim can no longer realistically be met.

This year's emissions data showed evidence of some countries rapidly expanding renewable energy and electric cars, the authors said.

Progress, however, was sharply uneven, with rich industrialised nations' emissions decreasing and emerging economies' emissions rising.

Tensions between nations erupted on Tuesday at COP29 over who should lead the world's transition away from fossil fuels, which produce around 80% of global energy.

COP29 host Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev accused Western countries of hypocrisy for lecturing others while being major consumers and producers of fossil fuels.

Emissions in the US, the world's top oil and gas producer and consumer, are expected to decrease by 0.6% this year, while EU emissions are set to fall by 3.8%.

India's emissions will rise by 4.6% this year, driven by soaring power demand fuelled by economic growth.

Emissions in China, the world's biggest emitter and second-largest oil consumer, are set to marginally increase by 0.2%. The authors said China's emissions from oil use have likely peaked as electric vehicles gain market share.

Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also expected to jump by 7.8% this year as air travel continues to recover from a drop in demand during the Covid-19 pandemic.