Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will rise by at least 17% this year to more than 20-million cars, helped by an extension of China's auto trade-in subsidies, research firm Rho Motion forecast on Tuesday.
Europe, the world's second-biggest EV market, will return to sales growth as CO2 emission targets come into effect and cheaper models become available, but the pace will remain slower than in 2023, said Rho Motion head of research Iola Hughes.
Carmakers look to 2025 as a transformative year as Europe introduces new targets to encourage EV adoption and China extends subsidies, while the US rolls back its electrification targets under the administration of President Donald Trump.
EV sales in China will likely rise more than a previous forecast for 17% growth in 2025 and boost its market dominance thanks to the extension of subsidies, Rho Motion estimated. In 2024, they jumped by a record 40% to 11-million.
Sales of Chinese-made EVs will confirm 2024 trends in Latin America, where they reached a market share of more than 80%, and will continue to rise in the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets, the firm forecast.
For Europe, it overall sales growth of 15% from the 3-million EVs sold last year.
Carmakers risk around €10bn (R196.43bn) in fines for missing EU emission targets, despite buying credits from EV makers through pools, it said.
That compares with €15bn (R294.65bn) in previous estimates, which excluded industry developments and new emission pools.
Rho Motion sees EV sales growth of 16% in the US in 2025 with limited impact from Trump's policy changes, but expects them to have long-term consequences, including a worst-case-scenario 47% drop in EV battery demand by 2040.
"In the US market, a lot of uncertainty has obviously hit the market in the last year or so, and we are expecting reduced EV forecasts," Hughes told Reuters. "However, the shift to electric vehicles is very much happening and we will see growth over the next decade."
Research firm projects 20-million EV sales globally by 2025
Image: Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will rise by at least 17% this year to more than 20-million cars, helped by an extension of China's auto trade-in subsidies, research firm Rho Motion forecast on Tuesday.
Europe, the world's second-biggest EV market, will return to sales growth as CO2 emission targets come into effect and cheaper models become available, but the pace will remain slower than in 2023, said Rho Motion head of research Iola Hughes.
Carmakers look to 2025 as a transformative year as Europe introduces new targets to encourage EV adoption and China extends subsidies, while the US rolls back its electrification targets under the administration of President Donald Trump.
EV sales in China will likely rise more than a previous forecast for 17% growth in 2025 and boost its market dominance thanks to the extension of subsidies, Rho Motion estimated. In 2024, they jumped by a record 40% to 11-million.
Sales of Chinese-made EVs will confirm 2024 trends in Latin America, where they reached a market share of more than 80%, and will continue to rise in the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets, the firm forecast.
For Europe, it overall sales growth of 15% from the 3-million EVs sold last year.
Carmakers risk around €10bn (R196.43bn) in fines for missing EU emission targets, despite buying credits from EV makers through pools, it said.
That compares with €15bn (R294.65bn) in previous estimates, which excluded industry developments and new emission pools.
Rho Motion sees EV sales growth of 16% in the US in 2025 with limited impact from Trump's policy changes, but expects them to have long-term consequences, including a worst-case-scenario 47% drop in EV battery demand by 2040.
"In the US market, a lot of uncertainty has obviously hit the market in the last year or so, and we are expecting reduced EV forecasts," Hughes told Reuters. "However, the shift to electric vehicles is very much happening and we will see growth over the next decade."
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