Anxiety rises in Kinshasa as M23 rebels advance in eastern DRC

As Rwanda-backed rebels strolled through the streets of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) second-largest city, President Felix Tshisekedi's office claimed it was still controlled by his army and "valiant" allied forces.

It was the latest jarring move from the 61-year-old leader that has fuelled a sense of worry and panic 1,600km away in the capital Kinshasa, where some residents are looking to move their families abroad amid open talk of a coup.

"There was never any question of fighting in Bukavu. It was clear to all the people on the ground that the Rwandans and their auxiliaries were going to make their entry," said one army general who expressed bafflement at a statement issued by the president's office on Sunday.

Tshisekedi, he added, "doesn't have the right sources".

Anxiety is visible on the streets of Kinshasa as the army puts up limited resistance against the M23 group's advance and residents question whether Tshisekedi grasps the risk it poses.

Embassies have begun using armoured vehicles for trips to the airport and sending some staff across the Congo River to Brazzaville, capital of the neighbouring Republic of Congo.

Three Kinshasa-based government officials told Reuters they were making arrangements to get their families out of the country.

Banker Matondo Arnold said he had already sent his family to Brazzaville after the rebels seized Goma, eastern DRC's biggest city, in late January. "We never imagined Goma could fall," he said.

As talk about a possible coup spread, justice minister Constant Mutamba said on X that Congolese "will not accept any coup that involves the Rwandan army to destabilise the country's institutions".

But even a member of Tshisekedi's Sacred Union coalition said the anxiety was unmistakable: "Oh yes, it's panic. Some people are desperate and they are courting embassies" in search of an exit.

SUMMIT SNUB

This M23 advance is the gravest escalation in more than a decade of the long-running conflict in eastern DRC, rooted in the spillover of Rwanda's 1994 genocide into DRC and the struggle for control of DRC's vast minerals resources.

Rwanda rejects allegations from DRC, the UN and Western powers that it supports M23 with arms and troops. It says it is defending itself against the threat from a Hutu militia, which it says is fighting with the DRC military.

As the hunt for a diplomatic resolution stalls, with Tshisekedi refusing to negotiate with the rebels, his camp faults the international community for failing to stand up to Rwanda by imposing sanctions.

"It's not a bad thing to refuse dialogue with an armed group like M23. The M23 is Rwanda," said a lawmaker close to the president. "Why doesn't the West do anything?"

Tshisekedi has skipped two African-organised meetings this month addressing the fighting: a joint summit in Dar es Salaam of southern and eastern African leaders and the annual African Union summit in Addis Ababa.

Instead he travelled to the Munich Security Conference where he accused his predecessor Joseph Kabila of sponsoring M23's military campaign, which Kabila's camp denied.

The decision by Tshisekedi, who spent much of his life in Brussels, to fly to Europe drew derision from the DRC political establishment.

"The fact that an African president snubs the African Union summit and prefers instead a security conference in Europe is indicative of who sustains him," said one former senior official.

Some members of DRC's fractious opposition are openly predicting Tshisekedi will not last.

"His lack of legitimacy is now proven, making him less and less listened to and more and more rejected by the population every day," said Olivier Kamitatu, a Kabila-era minister and spokesperson for opposition politician Moise Katumbi.

"Tshisekedi did not understand the issues of the country and the region. He did not have enough intellectual heft to lead [DR] Congo," said Martin Fayulu, who came in second in the 2018 election that brought Tshisekedi to power.

But it is unclear who could pose the most legitimate challenge to Tshisekedi, said Congolese analyst Bob Kabamba of the University of Liege in Belgium.

"With the capture of Goma and Bukavu, no one is sure of Tshisekedi's ability to control the security and political situation," he said.