The US is using off-take deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short-term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said before this week’s Indaba.
Washington’s focus is on Zambia, Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The latter accounts for more than 70% of global cobalt supplies and produced about 3.3-million tonnes of copper in 2024.
Instead of placing US operators in high-risk countries, however, the US is leaning towards off-take and other trading structures, such as one it has with Mercuria and arrangements it has with DRC state miner Gécamines, to edge output into US-aligned value chains dominated by Chinese refiners.
Off-take is where a country or company secures rights to a share of a mine’s output in exchange for financing or other support.
“We’re already seeing US engagement reshape mineral flows out of Africa,” said Thomas Scurfield, a senior analyst with NPO NRGI, before the event in South Africa.
“The US is putting money behind its rhetoric, but it remains to be seen whether it can compete with China’s scale and speed,” Scurfield added.
Washington and Beijing are expected to seek new commitments at the Indaba mining event in Cape Town this week, with the US sounding out officials on its minerals bloc.
Central to the change, Gécamines is preparing to ship about 100,000 tonnes of its Tenke Fungurume copper allocation to US buyers this year after winning broader marketing rights in a 2023 renegotiation with China’s CMOC.
The US strategy stretches beyond copper.
Xiao Wenhao, an analyst at Shanghai Metals Market, said China’s cobalt supply chain also faces risks as the DRC’s export restrictions collide with expanding US–DRC cooperation.
Elsewhere, London-based Pensana ditched plans to build a rare earth refinery in Britain to process feedstock from its mine in Angola, shifting the project to the US, citing stronger US incentives and price guarantees.
“This is the US deploying financial firepower rather than industrial presence,” said Vincent Rouget, analyst at Control Risks. “With off-take and trading channels, Washington can redirect DRC copper to American buyers without taking on the political or operational risks of running mines in the DRC.”
Chinese firms still control many of the DRC’s biggest copper and cobalt assets, including Tenke Fungurume and Kamoa-Kakula, and have routed most output to China for refining for more than a decade.
Beyond copper and cobalt, the DRC is emerging as a supplier of zinc, germanium and gallium.
New off-take arrangements position Gécamines as a leading zinc exporter and principal buyer of germanium and gallium concentrates, with the company recently recording its first export of locally processed germanium.
The contrast in capital deployment remains sharp.
KoBold Metals has staked more than 3,000km² in the lithium and copper belt but will not advance projects which are entangled in disputes, stressing governance standards, its DRC head Benjamin Katabuka told Reuters.
Chinese operators, by contrast, have proceeded on contested ground, reinforcing their speed‑to‑market advantage.
At Manono, one of the world’s largest undeveloped lithium deposits, KoBold says it will not move until ownership issues are resolved, even as Zijin advances infrastructure on the northern block.
If it secures the southern block cleanly, KoBold says production could start within three years.
In Guinea, China‑backed Winning Consortium Simandou pushed ahead with rail and port construction at the giant Simandou despite ownership disputes, effectively forcing Rio Tinto to fall in line.
TimesLIVE
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