As retailers prepare for what they hope will be an end-of-year boom, the consumer class who live in mid- to top-income households are cautiously optimistic about the future amid persistent economic headwinds.
Preliminary results from an annual BrandMapp survey, which uses a sample of 35,000 respondents earning R10,000 or more monthly, shows “they may have some guardrails around their optimism”.
It shows that while consumer confidence has dipped since the optimism around the 2024 government of national unity, it has remained higher than the anxiety-ridden outlook of 2023.
“Despite slower than expected reforms, rising living costs and a tough labour market, the national taxpayer mood hasn’t slipped back to its lowest ebb and we estimate about a third of the market sees enough progress to be optimistic about the future,” said Brandon de Kock of BrandMapp.
“We’ve always measured about 40% of people feeling unsure, while the rest see-saw between optimism and pessimism, but fortunately we’re on the right side of that equation as we head towards the end of 2025.
“In other words, we may be squeezed, but there’s just enough breathing room to see the year out on a reasonably good vibe.
“Given the weird goings-on in the world, [US President Donald] Trumpian dictates putting our export economy in danger, our supposedly contentious stand on the Middle East making things tricky, and a general feeling of anxiety about ‘the end of the world being nigh’, that only a quarter of consumer class South Africans are pessimistic about our future speaks volumes for the spirit of hopefulness that continues to exist among the tax-paying segment of South African society.”
The Bureau of Market Research (BMR)’s Consumer Market Outlook for 2025 to 2027 report offered key insights into anticipated changes in consumer sentiment, spending behaviour and macroeconomic influences.
Compiled by Dr Requier Wait, BMR’s chief researcher, the forecast explores how shifting economic and policy conditions are likely to shape consumer behaviour over the next three years.
Real household consumption is projected to grow modestly, supported by wage increases and easing inflation, but constrained by elevated household debt and a heavier personal income tax burden.
Retail sales are forecast to rise by 2% in real terms in 2025, with slightly slower growth expected in 2026 and 2027. The textiles and household goods sectors are poised to lead the recovery, while Black Friday continues to gain traction as a key retail catalyst.
According to De Kock, in South Africa there is a “vivid divergence in two economic landscapes”.
“In 2025 economic realities continued to reflect the stark contrast between a thriving financial market and deepening income inequality. This year the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) soared past a historic milestone of 100,000 points by mid-year and climbed further to more than 112,000 by November. It is among the best-performing 2025 financial markets globally,” he said.
“The outstanding vibrance contrasts jarringly with the lived economic stress of the working poor and broader society, where income inequality remains entrenched and ever-rising living costs fall well below wage increases.
“As always, it’s never a simple picture to paint, and South Africa remains a country of parallel universes.
“At the top of the income pyramid, the JSE is rocking, the exchange rate has held relatively firm and interest rate cuts and a reduction in the repo rate are a bonus for those who can afford to take advantage. At the bottom, despite almost 250,000 new jobs created in the past year, the expanded unemployment rate is sitting at around 40%. The divide is getting bigger, which is not a good thing, but the data tells us there’s a substantial segment of our society who can thankfully get on with building the economy and, hopefully, set the foundation for a better future for all.”
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