Climate change could spread malaria deeper into SA, study warns

Climate change is increasing the risk of malaria in parts of South Africa, with Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal expected to see some of the biggest increases in infections by 2050, according to a new international study.

The study, from the University of Cape Town (UCT) researchers, found that rising temperatures are changing where malaria can spread across Africa, putting more children at risk in cooler regions that have not traditionally carried a high malaria burden.

South Africa currently records most malaria cases in low-altitude areas of Limpopo, Mpumalanga and northern KwaZulu-Natal.

Researchers warn that climate change could allow the disease to spread further into these provinces as conditions become more favourable for mosquitoes that carry malaria.

UCT’s director of the Climate Risk Lab and co-author of the study, Dr Christopher Trisos, said the country should start preparing now.

“We are seeing a notable increase in the number of children contracting malaria in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal due to human-caused climate change. By 2050, these provinces are projected to see some of the largest increases in malaria risk from climate change in Africa,” he said.

Our study shows that climate change’s influence on childhood malaria risk is not uniform across Africa, underscoring the difficulty and complexity of adaptation and health planning across the continent

—  Romaric Odoulami, UCT

He said governments, health systems and communities need to strengthen malaria control programmes, especially in areas with little experience in dealing with the disease.

The study looked at how climate change has affected malaria in children across sub-Saharan Africa, where the vast majority of malaria cases and deaths occur. It found that climate change has already slightly increased malaria cases across the continent.

Researchers said rising temperatures are creating two different trends. In some of Africa’s hottest malaria hotspots, temperatures are becoming too high for mosquitoes to survive, which is expected to reduce malaria cases.

Countries including Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Mali could see cases fall by about 5%, while malaria could even disappear in some of the hottest countries, such as Niger, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Somalia.

In contrast, cooler parts of southern and East Africa are becoming more suitable for malaria transmission. By the end of the century, malaria risk could increase by as much as 20% in areas including the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.

Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better, it’s moving it. Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today

—  Tamma Carleton, University of California, Berkeley

UCT co-author Romaric Odoulami said limiting global warming to 2°C would help reduce malaria cases in southern Africa and protect children from the growing threat.

“Our study shows that climate change’s influence on childhood malaria risk is not uniform across Africa, underscoring the difficulty and complexity of adaptation and health planning across the continent,” he said.

Another co-author Tamma Carleton, from the Climate Impact Lab and the University of California, Berkeley, said climate change is not simply making malaria worse.

“Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better, it’s moving it. Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today,” said Carleton.

The researchers said reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving disease surveillance and investing in malaria prevention and healthcare will be critical to help countries adapt to the changing threat.

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