Worries about pre-poll violence in KwaZulu-Natal

Analysts are divided on whether there will be an upsurge in political violence in KwaZulu-Natal before next week's municipal elections.

Independent political analyst Protas Madlala said that, though the elections would probably be relatively stable, he believed trouble could flare up in areas closely contested by the "big three" political parties: the ANC, the IFP and the fledging IFP breakaway National Freedom Party.

"People in areas such as Estcourt, Nongoma, Ulundi and Greytown are on a knife's edge. Actually, I can even predict there will be violence in those areas, which will also be highly contested," said Madlala.

He said the killing of six councillors in the province in the run-up to the elections was a clear indication of rising political tensions. Before the 2006 local elections, seven people died in politically related murders.

Madlala said "the killings are not only between rival political parties, but are also intra-party, where members vie for positions and attack each other. Independent candidates have been attacked, which is a worrying trend."

It would be difficult to avert all violence, but increased police visibility and the deployment of the military could make a great difference, he said.

Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa said on Monday that 75000 police officers and more than 1000 troops would be deployed across the country to ensure that the elections were safe and secure.

He said 50000 police would be deployed at the 21868 polling stations throughout the country and 25000 for general crime prevention. Reservists would be called up to bolster the forces.

KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and North West were identified as "hot spots" where the police would intensify their operations.

University of KwaZulu-Natal political analyst Zakhele Ndlovu said intimidation and political intolerance in KwaZulu-Natal had decreased sharply, but he warned that police should be deployed in Zululand.

"The split in the IFP, resulting in the formation of the NFP, has caused tensions in that district, so much so that there is a great need for police deployment. But, at the same time, credit should be given to both [IFP leader] Mangosuthu Buthelezi and [NFP leader] Zanele Magwaza-Msibi for preaching tolerance and not inciting their followers by using inflammatory statements," said Ndlovu.

Analyst Nathi Mazibuko said: "Tempers are running high and we are most likely to experience violence in certain areas in Zululand and the Midlands."