The Big Read: Abuja victory for democracy

09 April 2015 - 02:50 By S'Thembiso Msomi

General Muhammadu Buhari's victory in Nigeria's presidential election last week took many casual observers of continental politics by surprise. The People's Democratic Party had been such a dominant political force since the west African nation returned to democracy in 1999 that it at times seemed like it would rule until the Son of Man returned, just like our own ANC.But for those who had followed political developments in Africa's most populous country, Buhari's victory over President Goodluck Jonathan had been long in the making.The only surprise was the spirit in which Jonathan and his PDP readily accepted defeat.We have become so used to losing parties crying electoral fraud and voter intimidation once the results are announced.That this was not the case in Nigeria last week, that Jonathan willingly accepted that he had to vacate the Aso Rock presidential villa in Abuja, is credit not only to him and his party but to that country's democratic system as a whole.We should never forget Nigeria's tortured history of governance since independence in 1960 .Until 1999, all attempts at democratic and civilian rule failed as the military elite staged one coup after another.When former military ruler General Olusegun Obasanjo won the first democratic election after decades of military dictatorships many were sceptical about how long it would last.Four years later, when Obasanjo won his second term as head of state, great jubilation greeted the country as it was for the first time in Nigeria's history that a civilian government had seen out its term of office.Another milestone was marked in 2007 when, again for the first time, power was transferred from one civilian president to the next, with Obasanjo handing over to newly elected president, and fellow PDP leader, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua.Yar'Adua died in office, leading to his vice-president, Jonathan, taking power.Jonathan won the 2011 elections and served as president until he was defeated by Buhari last week.But, as is the case in most modern countries, Nigeria's recent success story with democracy has been marred by rampant corruption, bureaucratic incompetence and - especially during Jonathan's tenure - stories of a cabinet that was not responsive to the public's complaints and demands.To say Jonathan had become unpopular in most parts of the country in recent years would be an understatement.His mishandling of the Boko Haram threat, especially his government's failure to prioritise the liberation of over 200 girls abducted by the insurgents, only added to an already long list of grievances against him.But, judging by his public statements, as well as those of his party and government spokesmen, the public dissatisfaction did not bother him too much.The PDP was too dominant a party for his individual unpopularity to lead to its losing power. The opposition, his supporters argued, was too weak to pose a threat.But they had misread the public mood and failed to appreciate the threat that a united opposition posed to Jonathan and the PDP.Buhari, who had come second in three previous elections, had now joined forces with other opposition parties and a significant number of prominent former PDP leaders to form the All Progressive Congress.As last week's election approached, voters' unhappiness with Jonathan's government grew rapidly and the APC cashed in. Even Obasanjo, the PDP's founding leader, publicly burned his party membership card to show his dissatisfaction.And so it came to pass that a party that once seemed invincible, winning successive elections in what Nigerians like to term "Africa's largest democracy", was voted out of office long before the Son of Man returned.Are there lessons here for South African political parties and voters? Certainly.Although it would be a mistake to assume that South Africa is headed down the same route, our parties would do themselves a big favour by taking notes.For the governing ANC, the main lesson here is obvious: That your party is the most dominant in the land does not mean that the situation will stay unchanged. You constantly need to win over people's confidence by delivering the services they expect from you. You should never take voters for granted, no matter how loyal they have been to you in the past.For the opposition, the Nigerian experience suggests that, in order for them to graduate from the opposition benches to the seat of power, they might have to let go of their precious fiefdoms and work together in a broader coalition.With time, we will know which of the two sides has taken the Nigerian presidential election lesson to heart...

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