Rand could tick stronger

11 October 2015 - 17:57 By RDM News Wire

SA sees only second tier data this week‚ but the rand could continue to tick stronger on the perceived dovish outlook from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)‚ says Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan. However‚ she says while major economic releases are absent from the domestic calendar‚ second tier data in the form of civil judgements for debt will be noted for a steer on the financial situation of consumers during the third quarter period.In July‚ civil judgements issued for debt for private persons totalled 22‚326‚ compared to 25‚941 a year earlier‚ she notes. Despite the decrease in the number of judgements‚ the value of the judgements rose to R302.1m from R281.8m in July 2014.“The decline in the number of judgements may be associated with an increase in the rejection rate of credit applications. The most recent data from the National Credit Regulator‚ confirms that in the second quarter the rejection rate of all new credit applications received rose to 56.0% from 52.6% in the first quarter‚” Kaplan says in a note.She adds that consumers remain highly indebted with the debt to disposable income ratio at 77.8% in the second quarter‚ while survey evidence points to relatively tight consumer credit conditions.“The confluence of high levels of indebtedness‚ rising living costs‚ personal income taxes and interest rates‚ as well as depressed consumer confidence‚ have acted together to suppress consumption expenditure growth.“Household consumption expenditure comprises nearly two-thirds of GDP and slowed materially in the second quarter to 1.2% from 2.4% in the first quarter and from 1.4% in 2014‚ all on a quarter on quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis.”This‚ taken together with the contraction in the industrial sector‚ has undermined the outlook for GDP growth‚ with both the South African Reserve Bank and the IMF recently substantially downgrading their 2015 GDP forecast‚ to just 1.5% and 1.4% respectively from 2.0% previously‚ Kaplan says...

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