Labour market activity likely to have been constrained by weak economic growth
Given that labour market activity remains constrained by weak economic growth‚ economists are not expecting any improvement in the employment numbers scheduled for release this week.“Pressures on company profits and above inflation growth in compensation of employees suggests that something will have to give. As such‚ we expect the unemployment rates to hover around 24%-25%‚” said FNB economist Mamello Matikinca.Investec economist Kamilla Kaplan noted that the unemployment rate rose to 25.3% in 2015 from 25.1% in 2014‚ with the potential for a further increase in 2016. She added that weak economic growth‚ low commodity prices and low rates of private sector investment had suppressed formal sector employment growth.“Additionally‚ drought conditions have seen employment levels drop in the agriculture sector over the last year. As such‚ the unemployment update for the first quarter of 2016 is likely to continue reflecting poor labour market dynamics‚” Kaplan said.The unemployment data will be released by Statistics South Africa on Tuesday.This week also sees the release of mining and manufacturing updates for April on Thursday as well as gross reserves data for the same month the following day.“The underlying detail in the trade data released for March suggests that we should expect some improvements in the March mining and manufacturing production data. We‚ nonetheless‚ remain very concerned about both these sectors given slow economic growth in China and weak commodity prices‚” said Matikinca.According to Kaplan‚ the mining and manufacturing production updates for March will conclude the sectors’ production figures for the first quarter of the year. This will provide guidance in terms of the potential contributions to GDP growth in the same quarter. “Based on the data available to date‚ production in both sectors is at risk of having contracted‚” she said.She added that the South African Reserve Bank’s foreign exchange reserves were expected to have risen to US$40.6bn from US$39.3bn in April.“The increase will mainly be ascribed to the absorption of the proceeds of a US$1.25bn 10-year bond issued by the government on April 8. In April‚ revaluation effects‚ related to a weaker US$‚ should have raised foreign exchange reserves by an estimated additional R0.1bn.“Gold reserves are also expected to have lifted‚ to US$5.21bn from US$4.97bn previously‚ on the nearly 5% m/m increase in the gold price. As a result‚ the gross reserves position is forecast at US$47.9bn compared to US$46.8bn in March‚” Kaplan said...
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