Civil unrest and crime warning for South Africa

08 June 2016 - 16:54 By TMG Digital
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Police stand watch on April 18 2016 after violent protests in Dunoon on Sunday night left many foreign shop owners devastated.
Police stand watch on April 18 2016 after violent protests in Dunoon on Sunday night left many foreign shop owners devastated.
Image: David Harrison

The 2016 Global Peace Index rewards South Africa for reducing spending on weapons but warns of political and social instability to come.

South Africa was a top-five improver globally and seven places higher year on year - though it still ranks a lowly 126th worldwide - driven by an improvement in the political terror scale‚ as well as a reduction in arms trade and military spending‚ according to the index‚ issued on Wednesday.

Panama recorded the largest score improvement in this year’s Index‚ rising 24 positions in the rankings to 49th. It was followed by Thailand‚ which rose nine positions to 125th spot. Sri Lanka was up by 18 places to 97th while South Africa jumped seven slots to 126th. Mauritania was the next best improver‚ gaining eight positions to 123rd.

Across the top risers‚ there was an improvement in internal peace‚ with indicators related to internal conflict improving in Mauritania‚ South Africa and Sri Lanka‚ and reduced likelihood of violent demonstrations in Panama‚ Sri Lanka and Thailand‚ the report stated.

The report notes‚ however‚ that notwithstanding increased levels of internal stability‚ in some cases this was not accompanied with a strengthening of democracy – South Africa‚ Thailand and Mauritania all deteriorated in the Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index.

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The report states: “South Africa’s domestic situation improved strongly in 2015‚ lifting the overall score and pushing the country up seven places in the ranking. Improvements in the intensity of organised internal conflict and the Political Terror Scale were the main drivers of growing levels of internal peace‚ even though‚ in absolute terms‚ the scores for these indicators are weaker than the global average and the country still suffers from major institutional deficiencies that could hinder further consolidation of peace”.

“Its overall rank of 126th is the lowest among the five biggest risers. There was some evidence of reduced militarisation‚ including reduced weapons imports and exports as well as lower military expenditure.

“Risk of underlying unrest remained high in 2015‚ and was exacerbated by the country’s high crime rate which was also reflected in a rise in the number of jailed population per 100‚000 people. Consolidation of power by the ruling ANC and a weak and mistrusted security apparatus will weigh on internal stability‚ which means the country may find it hard to build on its progress going forward.”

Overall‚ the economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2015 was $13.6 trillion in purchasing power parity terms‚ according to the index.

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This figure represents 13.3 percent of the world’s economic activity (gross world product) or $1‚876 for every person in the world. It is approximately 11 times the size of global foreign direct investment.

The largest regional improvement occurred in Central America and the Caribbean‚ recording an average improvement of one percent. The South and North America regions made progress as well‚ while the Middle East and North Africa experienced the largest deterioration‚ followed by sub-Saharan Africa‚ Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

The historic ten-year deterioration in peace has largely been driven by the intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa region. Terrorism is also at an all-time high‚ battle deaths from conflict are at a 25 year high‚ and the number of refugees and displaced people are at a level not seen in 60 years.

There are nine countries with more than 10 percent of their population classified as refugees or displaced persons with Somalia and South Sudan having more than 20 percent of their population displaced and Syria with over 60 percent displaced.

See the full report here.

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