Farm murder rate can be guestimated
A 79-year-old woman in KwaZulu-Natal stabbed to death; a 60-year-old man in Northern Cape stabbed to death; two people in Port Edward attacked with axes: all are attacks on farmers in the past week.
In addition to the two murders‚ there were about 17 attacks on people living on farms and smallholdings‚ according to AfriForum's count.
Ian Cameron‚ a safety monitor at AfriForum‚ said the most gruesome attack in his opinion in the past week was on a 20-year-old in the Midvaal‚ who faced an axe attack and her home was set on fire. She survived and is in hospital.
In the same week‚ an economist has weighed in on the farm murder debate‚ saying perhaps one can begin to calculate a rough guestimate for the rate of farm murders.
The question raised on Black Monday - when farmers protested about their lack of safety – is whether people living on farms and small holdings are really targeted more than people living in towns and cities. The AfriForum figure of about 60 murders a year includes commercial farmers‚ their families‚ visitors‚ farm-workers and those living on small holdings.
The general consensus is that it is hard to work out whether farmers face more brutality and violence than other South Africans‚ a country with one of the highest murder rates in the world and violence disproportionately affecting the poor.
Institute for Security Studies researcher Gareth Newham told African Check last year: "I do not really know how one could get an accurate estimate of the murder and attack rate on farms given the complexities involved.”
But economist Russell Lamberti has weighed into the farm murder debate saying one can work out "plausible ranges" of commercial farm murder rates.
His various estimates do not "pinpoint" an exact rate of farm murders per 100 000 people‚ but suggests that if you compare farm murder rates to murder rates in middle class-to-wealthy urban areas‚ the rate of farm murders is higher.
His estimates also suggest that if you compare the murder rates of male farmers to males in the same socioeconomic class‚ the rate of murder could be at least three to four times higher and possibly as much as 10 times higher.
He states his estimates are not to arrive at the "absolute truth [about farm murder rates] but to start examining the problem and grapple with plausible ranges". His tweets also look at the murder rates in rural provinces because many farmers live in sparsely populated areas. Read his tweets here:
Some comments on the SA farm murder debate.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
1. Anyone who says the rate of commercial farmer murders is "nearly impossible" to calculate is engaging in deliberate obfuscation. Hard(ish), yes. Nearly impossible, no. Pinpoint, no. Plausible ranges, yes.
2. Comparing farmer murder rate to total SA rate isn't helpful. SA murder rate skewed higher by extremely high-risk poor, dense urban areas (20% of SA murders reported at 2.6% of police stations). Relevant comparison is murder rate in rural areas & for same socioeconomic cohort.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
4. Unlikely there are more than 40k commercial farmers in SA. Extremely unlikely there are more than 50k. Unlikely there are fewer than 30k, extremely unlikely there are fewer than 25k. High likelihood # between 25-50k. Estimated commercial farm unita ~35k.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
6. So a range of high likelihood for the SA farmer murder rate is 40-280 per 100,000 per year. Afriforum estimate below midpoint of this range (~150/100k).
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
For context:
SA total murder rate 34.1.
Global rate ~6
Rich countries ~1
8. We shld compare farmer murder rate to non-urban rate & rate of farmers' socioeconomic cohort (middle class-to-wealthy). If high-density urban areas have highest rates, we should expect low density rural to have low rates. Also, more affluent cohort shld have low rate.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
10. Using census and SAPS data, the murder rate in middle class-to-wealthy urban suburbs in SA is around ~6/100k. Similar to global average.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
12. So here's some perspective. Farmers' socioeconomic status and low-density living cld predispose them to a murder rate of ~10/100k. Yet we see, at a minimum, 40/100k, 4x higher. At max, much much more.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
So the question is: why?
13. Put another way, if a farmer in SA had the same chance of being murdered as his urban middle class brother, we'd expect to see about 2-3 farmer murders per year in the entire country.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 10, 2018
One of the costs of choosing to work as a commercial farmer is a high risk of death. Lamberti suggests it could lead to farmers believing it is too risky to farm commercially when similar professions and lifestyles are less dangerous. This could result in farmers urging their children to avoid the profession. In his tweets‚ Lamberti reveals the numbers he has used‚ the assumptions he has made and has adjusted his figures as experts have weighed in on the debate.
Some have queried his 20 to 70 commercial farmer murders a year estimate‚ saying it may include their families and farm workers.
He also readjusted his tweets to assume that men are more likely to be killed than women.
If total urban middle class-to-wealthy area murder rate is ~6, then stat for adult men in those areas would be ~15 IF adult men are 85% of murder victims & 40% of middle class-to-wealthy area population. https://t.co/znused7gI4
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 11, 2018
So that changes my earlier statement: for a farmer to have the same murder risk as his urban-dwelling brother, we'd expect not 2-3 farmer murders per year but more like 5-8. In other words, the first 5-8 farmer murders per year are "normal" for SA.
— Russell Lamberti (@RussLamberti) January 11, 2018
AfriForum spokesman Ernst Roets feels strongly about the issue of farmer murders‚ saying that "when a farm worker is killed‚ as horrible as it is‚ it becomes a national spectacle … But the trend of farmer deaths is not seen in the same light".