IN QUOTES | SA cannot escape the coronavirus pandemic - Prof Salim Abdool Karim

SA cannot escape the coronavirus pandemic, despite the success in keeping community transmission at low levels, said Prof Salim Abdool Karim.

On Monday, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize hosted a public engagement to deal with technical aspects relating to the country's Covid-19 response.

The meeting was joined by experts on Covid-19, including Abdool Karim, a world-renowned HIV scientist and infectious diseases epidemiologist.

Mkhize announced that SA had 2,272 confirmed coronavirus cases. Two more people have died, bringing the country's death toll to 27.

Here are five takes from Abdool Karim at the public engagement meeting.

Decrease in cases

Abdool Karim said SA's current plateau in the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases can be traced back to March 26, the first day of the lockdown.

“SA was on an upward trajectory, the exponential curve, but since the lockdown on March 26 2020, the number of cases has started to decrease to about 60 per day.”

SA's plateau

Compared to the UK, US and Italy, Karim believes SA's plateau can be attributed to three reasons; not testing enough, testing only in the private sector, and the lockdown is working.

“Covid-19 cases have decreased as the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) testing has increased. Therefore it is more likely the lockdown is having an effect on the number of cases.

“Although we have succeeded in keeping community transmission at low levels, the likely future scenario is a delay in the exponential growth of the virus. We cannot escape the pandemic.”

Infection rate in SA

Abdool Karim said the nationwide lockdown can only be eased if the infection rate (R0) is brought below 1. Currently, the global RO is estimated between 2 and 3.

“On average, one person infects one person. This is what is happening in SA,' he said. 

“If we allow the virus to grow unchecked, we will see what is happening in New York happening here. Patients will flood the health-care system and we simply don't have enough ICU (intensive care unit) beds.”

Ending lockdown abruptly

The professor said if the lockdown is ended abruptly, SA may run the risk of undoing all of the efforts and benefits achieved thus far.

“We know that if we end the lockdown and we end it abruptly, we may run the risk of undoing all of the effort and the benefit we’ve achieved because then we’ll be putting high-risk and low-risk people together travelling in the same buses, taxis and trains," he said.

“We have to do something about it. We have to avoid that situation. We need to think about a plan for a systematic easing of the lockdown, starting with transport hubs and then working our way down from the lowest risk to the highest risk.”

Wearing masks

Abdool Karim said masks are effective in stopping the virus from being transmitted, but there was no evidence that a mask protects the wearer.

“N95 masks are the gold standard of medical care masks. These should last about one week, but it is not advisable for the general public to use these masks. It is difficult to wear and makes it difficult to breathe,” he said. 

Longer lockdown for the elderly?

The prof said a longer lockdown for the elderly may be on the cards.

"One of the big issues we are going to have to think about, is how do we protect the elderly, in particular, those above 70. Preferably those above 60 or 65 because mortality is higher in that group, but above 70, we are concerned. We need to think about whether it will be possible to have some kind of partial lockdown and it can be voluntary partial lockdown until the end of September."