More carnage coming in Moz, plus five highlights from ‘Vrye Weekblad’

The attack on the town of Pemba in northern Mozambique is a significant change in the strategy of Islamic insurgents. And experts warn that it is a catastrophe for the entire region.

Another round of bloody attacks is expected after insurgents looted more than 80 vehicles, including petrol tankers, during the attack on Pemba. A suspected 1,000 people were left dead. Many were decapitated. The insurgents probably also got their hands on cash in attacks on three international banks, seized 90 tonnes of food from the World Food Programme, and stole large quantities of supplies from shops and houses. They probably obtained more weapons, and especially international “standing” as a terrorist group.

The Islamic State (IS) has accepted responsibility for the attack, the 46th incident in the northern Cabo Delgado province which they have claimed.

“The attack is a catastrophe, the biggest catastrophe that has ever hit this region,” says Johann Smith, a risk analyst whose focus is the security situation in Mozambique.

“I don’t think the Mozambican government or anyone realises how serious the implications are. The insurgents are now even more mobile than before. There are big problems ahead.”

The Mozambican authorities were caught off guard despite several warnings, and the country’s president, Filipe Nyusi, previously repeatedly declined offers of help, including from SA. It is something for which international contractors working on gas plants, including at least one South African, and ordinary citizens have now paid with their lives. And the insurgents have achieved a clear symbolic and tactical victory.

Besides, now is the start of the dry season, or rather the fighting season, when there is usually a sharp rise in attacks. The only buffer against the insurgents, the SA paramilitary group Dyck Advisory Group (DAG), has to leave the country because their contract with the Mozambican police was not renewed. It was precisely this group led by ex-Rhodesian colonel Lionel Dyck that launched a courageous helicopter operation to rescue people from the beleaguered Amarula Hotel in Palma, and pick up those who had sought refuge in the bush and on beaches.

Read this analysis of the violence in Mozambique plus more news and analysis in this week's issue of Vrye Weekblad.

Must-read articles in this week’s Vrye Weekblad

>> Browse the full April 2 edition

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