Expect rain and cooler weather this summer.
This is a prediction by professor in meteorology Willem Landman, known among his peers as the ‘father’ of seasonal forecasting in SA.
“We are seeing a La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When we have La Niña we have a wet rainfall season,” he said.
“What we are seeing this year is the same as last year. The rain received this past November is the same as November last year. This year we’ve seen rain in places where there’s not usually a lot of rain.”
La Niña is the colder and wetter parallel to El Niño. The two are part of a revolving southern oscillation climate pattern which affects Southern Africa. These weather patterns can last for years and, according to Landman, one cannot accurately predict when these patterns will occur until we are about five to 10 months away from experiencing them.
La Niña occurs when equatorial trade winds — air currents which blow from east to west close to the earth's surface — blow stronger, changing the currents in the water. This forces cooler deep water to rise, cooling the Pacific Ocean and creating rainfall in this area. Southern Africa and other parts of the world are affected by this phenomenon.
“Forecasts for this period — including the next couple of months — seem positive for good rainfall which will lead to slightly below-average temperatures. This is expected to continue into December, January and February.
“This is the same for Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Botswana and Namibia.
“These oscillations are difficult to predict. We usually find we can experience two consecutive El Niños and we can only say there will be a La Niña 10 months ahead of the main event. These events happen about every five and seven years ... only in July or August is when we know what will happen in the Pacific Ocean.
“It’s impossible for us to have predicted the La Niña would last the second consecutive summer. The last time we had El Niño was in the 2018/19 season then we had La Niña in 2020/21 and again 21/22.
“When we have La Niña our models predict rainfall, we predict wet weather and that normally turns out to be the case. We expect quite a bit of rain in the next week or so.”
TimesLIVE
Expect rain for the rest of summer
Seasonal forecaster predicts the unusually wet weather will continue into the new year
Image: 123RF/Surut Wattanamaetee
Expect rain and cooler weather this summer.
This is a prediction by professor in meteorology Willem Landman, known among his peers as the ‘father’ of seasonal forecasting in SA.
“We are seeing a La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. When we have La Niña we have a wet rainfall season,” he said.
“What we are seeing this year is the same as last year. The rain received this past November is the same as November last year. This year we’ve seen rain in places where there’s not usually a lot of rain.”
La Niña is the colder and wetter parallel to El Niño. The two are part of a revolving southern oscillation climate pattern which affects Southern Africa. These weather patterns can last for years and, according to Landman, one cannot accurately predict when these patterns will occur until we are about five to 10 months away from experiencing them.
La Niña occurs when equatorial trade winds — air currents which blow from east to west close to the earth's surface — blow stronger, changing the currents in the water. This forces cooler deep water to rise, cooling the Pacific Ocean and creating rainfall in this area. Southern Africa and other parts of the world are affected by this phenomenon.
“Forecasts for this period — including the next couple of months — seem positive for good rainfall which will lead to slightly below-average temperatures. This is expected to continue into December, January and February.
“This is the same for Eswatini, Lesotho, Mozambique, Botswana and Namibia.
“These oscillations are difficult to predict. We usually find we can experience two consecutive El Niños and we can only say there will be a La Niña 10 months ahead of the main event. These events happen about every five and seven years ... only in July or August is when we know what will happen in the Pacific Ocean.
“It’s impossible for us to have predicted the La Niña would last the second consecutive summer. The last time we had El Niño was in the 2018/19 season then we had La Niña in 2020/21 and again 21/22.
“When we have La Niña our models predict rainfall, we predict wet weather and that normally turns out to be the case. We expect quite a bit of rain in the next week or so.”
TimesLIVE
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