Putin's choice, plus five talking points from Vrye Weekblad

Regardless of how many missiles and military hardware are pumped into Ukraine the military endgame of Russia’s invasion will have catastrophic consequences for Ukrainians. 

Not even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s best propaganda will convince his citizens that it’s fine to bleed and starve while soldiers are dying and the country is systematically destroyed.

There are few options in the conflict. Russia’s economy, already smaller than South Korea’s, won’t depend on Western trade any time soon. Ukraine is at risk of being flattened, at least in the east.

The humanitarian suffering and consequences won’t be countered indeterminately by stories of Zelenskyy’s bravery. In the end Russia’s slow poison and mighty military machinery will gain the upper hand. There is no other outcome; the Russian might is too powerful. All the Molotov cocktails in the world won’t stop the machine because Russian President Vladimir Putin can’t afford to stop now. It would signal his end and Putin will use his entire arsenal to not be defeated. 

People have never been Putin’s priority. They are collateral in his battle to maintain Russia’s reputation as the mightiest super power.

Military analysts believe Russia could already have taken control of Kyiv if it had wanted to. The city’s outskirts have been bombarded for days. Perhaps Putin doesn’t want to advance towards Poland and Hungary because he is only interested in the eastern part of Ukraine, said Col Doug Macgregor, former military adviser in the Trump administration. He predicts the 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers holding the front in the south won’t last much longer.

Analysts are, however, asking where Putin’s air force is. One possibility is that Russia will first use its heavy artillery because that will achieve the goals of Putin’s war plan. Russia has more planes than its neighbour — Jane’s Defense estimates Russia has 832 fighter planes vs Ukraine’s 86 and 358 cargo planes vs 63.

The past week has exposed serious communication problems within the Russian forces and there are doubts whether Russia has the tactical planning ability needed for a combined air and land offensive. 

According to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Russia has the largest number of active nuclear warheads in the world (5,977). The US has 5,428; China 350; France 290; Britain 225; Pakistan 165; India 160; Israel 90 and North Korea 20.

Whether Russia can use these warheads selectively and successfully is anybody’s guess. 

The impact of sanctions and his future as Russian leader may drive Putin to extremes. The war is not only about Ukraine’s sovereignty, it’s about Putin finding himself in a corner.  

Maj-gen Lawrence Smith, former deputy chief of the SA army, says the Ukrainians’ only chance of success is to use guerrilla tactics.

“A low intensity guerrilla war can drag on in Ukraine and the Russians can’t afford that.” 

Read the full article, and more news, analysis and interviews in this Friday's edition of Vrye Weekblad. 

Must-read articles in this week’s Vrye Weekblad

>> Browse the full March 4 edition

THE WEEK IN POLITICS | Max du Preez looks at President Cyril Ramaphosa's Gwede Mantashe problem, Dudu Myeni's bags full of cash and the ANC who is buddy-buddy with a war criminal. 

CYRIL DROPS THE BALL | While President Cyril Ramaphosa has been washing his hands of Ukraine, like he's Pontius Pilate, Vladimir Putin managed to do what not even Covid-19 could manage to do: create consensus and solidarity in the world.

THE LAST READERS? | Deborah Steinmair wonders if we might be the last generation who reads obsessively. And she writes about those books she'd read over and over again. 

KEEPING UP WITH THE PUTINS | Linda van Tilburg goes looking for the rich Russians in St George's Hill in London and wonders if the rumours about the tallest tree in the hood are true.

CHUTNEY! | Everyone has their own version of this ever present condiment. It livens up a cheese board, is vital for a decent braaibroodjie and gave us iconic dishes such as chutney chicken. We share a few recipes and ideas.