Why should Covid-19 waves be publicly announced?

SA has had five Covid-19 infection waves since the pandemic first broke out in early 2020.

The most recent two waves have seen fewer cases and hospitalisations compared with the first three. 

The latest resurgence in cases lasted almost eight weeks and was the shortest and least severe wave to date. 

However, patients continue to be admitted to hospital with severe symptoms and the virus continues to kill people, though it may now have less impact on the health system. 

Why should waves be publicly announced?

Caprisa director and epidemiologist Prof Salim Abdool Karim said: “The main reason the start and end of waves need to be reported to the public is so that the public is aware of the increased risk when the wave starts and can 'live smartly with the virus' by adjusting risk-taking behaviour when cases are high and/or rising in a wave.”

If the start and end of a wave were not announced, the public would need to individually follow case trends to decide if a wave was present so they could appropriately adjust risk-taking.

Has SA passed the fifth wave?

SA passed the peak of the fifth wave last month with data showing infections have peaked and are on the decline. 

According to senior researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Dr Ridhwaan Suliman, there has been a slow down in new infections.

Speaking on eNCA, Suliman said the seven-day test positivity average data showed a decrease in infections. 

“We are well past the peak of the fifth wave of Covid-19 infections in SA.

“We can confirm that the number of confirmed cases is on a decline. Furthermore, test positivity is also declining.”

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