Coalitions after 2024, plus 5 highlights from ‘Vrye Weekblad’
Here’s what’s hot in the latest edition of the Afrikaans digital weekly
Max du Preez sketches two provocative scenarios in this week’s edition of Vrye Weekblad.
If the ANC splits during or after its December conference and the President Cyril Ramaphosa faction joins forces with the DA, such a coalition could probably win by a landslide in 2024. Yes, it might be a flight of fancy, but think about it: A respected black leader and a party with an excellent record in governance have to be a winning combination.
Second scenario: Unless his Phala Phala scandal trips him up, Ramaphosa will be re-elected as ANC leader in December. There is simply no one of stature who can challenge him. Will the RET faction instead focus on loading the NEC with its supporters? If that succeeds, an ANC/EFF alliance could be on the cards after 2024.
According to the latest Ipsos poll, the ANC’s support is at 42%, with the DA 11%, EFF 9%, ActionSA 3%, IVP 2% and VF Plus 2%, although respected analyst Dawie Scholtz believes the ANC may get to 50%.
Scenario planner Frans Cronjé recently told BizNews’ Alec Hogg the numbers indicate ANC support is at 46% and DA support is “in the low 20s”. If the ANC gets rid of Ramaphosa, Cronjé said, the party will dip to well below 40%.
ANC voters are no longer necessarily supporters of the party, Cronjé said. Many realise the DA governs better, but fear black South Africans will be neglected (in the DA).
DA federal chair Helen Zille insists the party does not see race. She speaks of “blue voters” and “blue values” and says the DA’s surveys indicate the party is doing really well among black voters. She may have a point, but I think she misses the reality that people want to see themselves represented in their political party. While there are senior black and coloured leaders in the DA, the perception is that whites such as Zille and party leader John Steenhuisen are in charge.
It makes one wonder where the party would have been today if it hadn’t gotten rid of Mmusi Maimane as leader.
Only R10 for the first month!
This week MP and former DA Free State leader Patricia Kopane resigned from the party and joined ActionSA. She was preceded by Makashule Gana, whose resignation followed those of Bongani Baloyi, Mbali Ntuli, Phumzile van Damme, John Moodey, Funzi Ngobeni and Abel Tau.
Not a single prediction or poll gives the EFF a chance to grow significantly. Consensus is the party may at best pull 15% of the vote.
If the ANC does poll under 40%, the EFF may not be the ideal coalition partner.
ActionSA’s poor performance in the polls — 3% according to Ipsos — is surprising. The party’s leaders said they believe they can pull 10% or more of the vote if their work on the ground, establishing branches, bears fruit.
Must-read articles in this week’s Vrye Weekblad
THE STORY BEHIND THE STORY OF A HEIST | Anneliese Burgess reconstructs the cyber attack on Postbank and talks to the investigator who helped catch the syndicate.
WHAT NOW FOR AFRIKAANS SCHOOLS? | The dangers of the proposed changes to the education act have put Piet Croucamp in a corner with people he would normally not agree with.
THE WEEK IN POLITICS | Max du Preez writes about the ANC buttering up Moscow, Julius Malema’s rubbish about Thabo Mbeki, and a Jacob Zuma daughter who seems to have holes in her memory.
ALCOHOLISM: WHEN HOPE DIES | He remembers how the heaviness sat in his belly like lead when the unsteady steps and poisoned words started falling with the hidden bottles.
WHAT WE’RE READING | An unfinished novel by the Scot William McIlvanney that was finished by Ian Rankin, Richard Osman’s book about four older people — hardcore, godless, razor-sharp — who put their heads together to solve crime, and the noir debut of French writer Laure van Rensburg.