Half of state schoolteachers headed for retirement: study

Half of SA's publicly employed teachers are aged 50 and above. This will lead to a wave of retirements and opportunities for prospective teachers.

This is according to a Teacher Demographics Policy Dialogue report by research and socioeconomic policy researchers at Stellenbosch University. 

It shows the age distribution of teachers has shifted over the past decade, with the peak increasing from 43 years in 2011 to 53 years in 2021.

“Teachers can retire from age 55 and in most circumstances have to retire by age 60, though in some circumstances a limited number are allowed to remain in teaching until age 65. Altogether, 49% of teachers are 50 years or older and 25% at least 55 years old. Thus a large retirement wave is inevitable,” the document said.

Retirement and other forms of departure from the public teaching sector will rise strongly in the age group 55 and above, it added.

“In 2013, just over 7,800 public-sector educators aged 55+ had left in the previous year, a number that rose to just under 12,500 in 2021,” said the report.

Projections of these numbers beyond 2021 used that year’s age distribution and past patterns of attrition from whatever cause.

They indicate that leavers in this age group will peak at about 2029, at almost 17,300, after more than doubling since 2013. After 2030, the number will again decline back to about 8,700 in 2040.

Meanwhile, the report indicated that since 2016 universities have increased teacher supply, but provinces have not increased hiring.

“Universities have met the initial teacher education graduate targets set by the department of higher education & training, which suggests they have managed to respond to the pressures of training additional teachers.”

In 2021 only 14,524 teachers were hired by provinces, while 28,335 teachers graduated from universities, meaning only half of graduates were hired.

“Universities will need to produce even more teachers to keep up with the incoming retirement wave, though provinces need to hire the teachers that are produced.

“The current graduate production levels — 28,000 per year — will need to increase even further to avoid very large increases in class sizes due to large numbers of retiring teachers not being replaced. Yet provinces need to hire the teachers universities are producing,” found the report.

Provinces are also facing budget constraints and are likely to respond by freezing middle-management posts or leaving vacant posts unfilled as a cost-saving measure.

“No-fee and rural schools will be affected the most by the growing gap between increasing teacher retirements and stagnant hiring.”

The report said if provinces fail to hire more teachers as older educators exit the system, pupil-teacher ratios are likely to rise above 2021’s projected ratio of about 30 pupils per teacher. This means teachers will be faced with large and growing class sizes, especially those teaching at poor and remote or rural schools.

“Additionally, primary schools are more likely to be affected than secondary schools since there are more older teachers in primary schools than high schools,” found the report.

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