More rain possible this weekend but 'tricky' situation for crops

The SA Weather Service forecasts a 30% chance of rain over most of the country.

17 January 2025 - 21:03
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The recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for sugarcane.
The recent heavy rainfall has been beneficial for sugarcane.
Image: Emil von Maltitz

With a chance of more rain over parts of the country this weekend, the agricultural sector finds itself in a precarious situation, with the wet weather having delayed the planting of crops in some areas while also helping with recovery after the recent extreme heat and drought.    

 

The SA Weather Service predicts a 30% chance of showers and thundershowers in Gauteng, the western parts of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal. This is forecast to continue on Saturday in the eastern parts of the North West Rand the Free State. On Sunday, the Eastern Cape will experience possible showers, forecaster Tokelo Chiloane said.

While the eastern parts of the country experienced the usual summer rain and thunderstorms, the recent rainfall has been above normal due to La Niña, Chiloane said.

“Looking at the data we have on record, the Irene weather station in Centurion received 154mm of rain in December, while the climatic average is about 119mm. The Johannesburg Botanical Gardens’ weather station has received between 50-100mm for the first 10 days of January,” she told TimesLIVE.

Chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) Wandile Sihlobo said the intense hot weather in November had affected crops and grazing fields soon after some regions had finished planting and before others could plant.

The heat affected provinces such as Limpopo, Mpumalanga and the Free State. However, the rains from December to January were encouraging and seemed to promise a recovery, he said.

However, it was concerning that areas that had not yet completed the planting were struggling to get into the field due to the continued wet weather, Sihlobo said.

“It is already late for planting, as the country’s traditional optimal planting window closes at the end of December. Still, there have been many seasons where farmers planted crops at the start of January and went on to have a robust harvest. This year’s challenge is that we are in mid-January with still a minimal breather from the heavy showers in some regions. Thus, we fear there could be late planting if farmers proceed even after mid-January.”

He said forecasts of rainfall were not worrisome for the coming months when it comes to late-planted regions as global weather forecasters suggest the late arrival of La Niña through February and April.

“Under such conditions, we gain comfort that even if the crop pollinates in March, there will still be a high chance of sufficient moisture to support production. Sugar cane production will also benefit from this rain.

“We are also comforted by the possibility that the grazing field for the livestock may receive much-needed support. The one aspect we may have to pay close attention to in a wet season is animal diseases. Still, we do not see a significant risk, but we are flagging this as an issue worth monitoring,” Sihlobo said.

As for the coming winter, the weather service said it was unclear at this stage. However, there could be above-normal temperatures in early winter across the country. The southern coastal areas are forecast to have below-normal temperatures, Chiloane said.

“The seasonal forecast predicted above-normal temperatures for the summer and autumn season. Though it’s cloudy and cool now, the season is not yet over,” she said.

TimesLIVE


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