South Africans growing older but black population remains relatively young

A recent report by Stats SA reveals that while South Africa's population is generally getting older, the black African population continues to remain relatively young compared to other racial groups.

The report, titled “South African Age-Sex Structure, 1996-2022: Is the Population Ageing?” highlights the demographic shifts across various population groups over the past two decades.

“The proportion of South Africans aged 60 years and older has increased in every province, according to new data. In 2022 the Eastern Cape recorded the highest percentage of elderly residents at 12.3%, followed by the Western Cape (11%) and Free State at 10.6%. In contrast, Gauteng and Mpumalanga had the lowest share of residents in this age group,” said Stats SA.

The report reveals an upward trend in the country’s median age across all population groups. The most significant increase has been observed among the white population, whose median age rose from 33 in 1996 to 45 in 2022. Similarly, the median age for the Indian/Asian population reached 37 by 2022.

The median age is a key measure used to understand a country’s population structure.

In contrast, the black African population, with a median age of just 27, remains significantly younger. According to the data, all population groups except black Africans are now considered to be ageing.

“South Africa, a country shaped by its young population, is quietly undergoing a demographic shift that could reshape its future. While the country still has a relatively young population compared to many developed nations, declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy are steadily pushing the median age upward,” said Stats SA.

“A median age below 20 indicates a young population, between 20 and 29 is classified as intermediate, and 30 or older means the population is ageing.”

The report shows South Africa’s national median age increased from 22 years in 1996 to 28 years in 2022.

The Western Cape (31) and Gauteng (30) now have the highest median ages, classifying them as provinces with an “old” population.

In contrast, Limpopo recorded the lowest median age at 26, while all other provinces fall within the “intermediate” age category.

“The proportion of South Africans aged 60 and older has been steadily increasing, rising from 7% in 1996 to 9.8% in 2022.

“Among population groups, the white population has the highest percentage of elderly citizens, followed by the Indian/Asian community, while black Africans have the lowest. In 2022, about 29% of the white population was aged 60 or older — almost double the share of Indians/Asians (16.5%), three times that of coloureds (10.9%), and more than 3.5 times that of black Africans (7.8%).”

The report also highlights the ageing index, which measures the number of people aged 60 and older for every 100 children under 15.

“If the index is below 100, there are more young people than elderly — but if it’s above 100, older people outnumber the young.”

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