Partly cloudy and warm-to-cool conditions are expected across much of the country this festive season.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) warned that isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers are anticipated mainly over the central and eastern parts of the country.
SAWS said thunderstorm activity is expected to occur primarily in the afternoons, though periods of increased moisture may result in morning showers in some areas.
“Much of the rainfall during this period will be associated with afternoon and evening thundershowers, which may at times be accompanied by heavy downpours, lightning and gusty winds,” said Jaqueline Modika, senior forecaster at SAWS.
Senior forecaster Lehlogonolo Thobela said in the afternoons a 60% chance of showers and thundershowers is expected, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, mainly isolated for the central and the eastern parts of the country.
On Thursday, Thobela said there is still a scattered to widespread chance of showers and thundershowers over the eastern parts, including KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State, Gauteng, Mpumalanga and parts of North West into Limpopo.
The weather service also has several warnings, most of them for severe thunderstorms, mainly over the northern parts of Gauteng into the southwestern parts of Mpumalanga, which also covers the Highveld.
“It is a yellow level 4 warning, which means it’s a low likelihood, but the significant effects are expected to result in heavy downpours that lead to localised flooding and possibilities of damaging winds as well as a possibility of hail and excessive lightning over those areas. For the eastern parts, an 80% chance of rain and showers is still expected in KwaZulu-Natal,” Thobela said.
Thobela said more severe thunderstorms are expected to reach the central interior into the western parts of KwaZulu-Natal.
“This will cover Newcastle and parts of the central interior, so expect more of the thunderstorms which may result in heavy downpours and lead to localised flooding. Stretching into tomorrow (Friday) we see that band of showers and thundershowers moving into North West. It is a 60% chance of showers and thundershowers into the afternoon, especially in North West, 30% mainly over the central parts into the eastern areas, which would cover the Free State, North West and Gauteng is also included,” he said.
For Friday, the weather service has issued a yellow level 2 warning for North West for a high likelihood of minor impacts including heavy downpours that may lead to localised flooding, more damaging winds and a possibility of hail and excessive lightning.
“Stretching to the northeastern parts of the Eastern Cape — we also have a yellow level 2 warning of severe thunderstorms.”
Isolated to scattered showers and thundershowers, mainly over the central and eastern parts of the country, are expected into the weekend.
Thobela said fine conditions are expected over the southwestern interior, with hot weather in some areas. Windy conditions may also occur, increasing the risk of veld fires that could spread rapidly.
From Saturday into Sunday, scattered showers and thundershowers are still expected, with a high chance of rainfall up to 80% mainly in KwaZulu-Natal. These conditions are expected to extend into parts of southern Mpumalanga.
On the seasonal climate outlook for the 2025-2026 summer season, Modika said it indicates a transition towards a weak La Nina state which is expected to influence rainfall and temperature patterns across the country.
La Nina refers to the pattern where the waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal. This cooling changes the global wind and weather patterns and typically brings above normal summer rainfall to the northeastern parts of South Africa, such as Gauteng, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal, parts of North West province and the Free State.
The outlook covers the periods from December to April 2026.
She said climate model predictions suggest an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall over the central and eastern parts of the country.
The wetter-than-usual conditions are consistent with the typical impacts associated with La Nina episodes and expected to persist to mid- to late summer.
TimesLIVE
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