New data obtained by Build One South Africa (Bosa) through a parliamentary question has revealed fluctuating and, in some years, sharply declining enrolment trends at technical and vocational education and training (TVET) colleges over the past five years, raising concerns about the sector’s ability to meet growing demand.
Bosa deputy leader Nobuntu Hlazo-Webster asked minister of higher education Buti Manamela to provide enrolment targets and actual intake figures for public colleges including TVET institutions over the past five financial years.
In his response, the minister confirmed that the department of higher education and training (DHET) oversees 50 public TVET colleges and shared data on national enrolment performance between the 2021/22 and 2025/26 financial years, showing a fluctuating relationship between targets and actual intake.
The data showed that the sector began on a strong footing in 2021/22, exceeding its target of 568,569 by 3.6% with total enrolments reaching 589,083 students.
This performance dropped significantly in 2022/23. Despite an increased target of 582,048, actual enrolments fell to 518,584, a negative variance of 10.9%, or more than 63,000 students.
This was the only year in the dataset where the target was clearly not achieved.
After this shortfall, targets were adjusted downwards in 2023/24. The target was reduced to 557,035, with actual enrolments slightly exceeding this by 1.3% at 564,089 students.
A more dramatic shift occurred in 2024/25 when the national target was lowered to 482,244.
Actual enrolments remained high at 560,446, resulting in the largest positive variance of the five-year period at 16.2%.
Preliminary figures for 2025/26 indicate a possible decline again, with enrolments now at 432,505 against a target of 480,547 — a shortfall of about 48,042 students. The minister, however, noted that this data is still subject to validation across all 50 colleges.
Responding to whether targets were achieved, the minister said enrolment figures had “fluctuated over the five-year period” and pointed to the fiscal environment as a key constraint.
“While demand for TVET places and demographic pressure on the post-school education system have increased, the primary constraint on expanding student enrolment has been the fiscal environment,” he said.
He explained that enrolment targets are largely determined by the budget allocated through the fiscus, which has not kept pace with demand.
“The budget allocated to the TVET college sector has not seen a real-term increase commensurate with the rising demand. The year-on-year increase in the budget has been, on average, between 4% and 5%, which has been consistently outstripped by the escalation in the cost of delivering programmes and compensation,” he said.
As a result, targets are often conservative and pegged to guaranteed funding rather than actual demand.
The minister said additional funding from sector education and training authorities (Setas) and the National Skills Fund (NSF) played a significant role in years where targets were exceeded.
“These funds are typically earmarked for specific skills programmes, apprenticeships and artisan development, enabling colleges to enrol more students than initially planned.”
This, he noted, explains the positive variances recorded in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
Improved operational efficiency was also cited as a contributing factor.
“Colleges have been optimising their existing infrastructure and human resources improving registration processes and maximising the use of workshops and classrooms,” the minister said.
He said the sharp decline in 2022/23 could be linked to the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The disruption to the school calendar impacting on the throughput of grade 12 learners may have created uncertainty that affected student registration patterns,” he said.
At a provincial level, Gauteng continues to dominate the TVET sector, recording the highest number of enrolments. In 2024, the province significantly exceeded its target, enrolling 135,927 students against a plan of 103,782.
Institutions such as South West Gauteng TVET College, which consistently handles more than 20,000 students annually, remain key drivers, alongside Tshwane South and Tshwane North.
KwaZulu-Natal follows closely with Majuba TVET College enrolling 26,994 students in 2024. However, the province has experienced volatility, including a sharp drop in 2022 when total enrolment fell to 99,990 against a planned 127,305.
Other provinces showed more moderate growth between 2023 and 2024:
- Free State: 47,505 to 48,406 (+1.9%)
- Limpopo: 58,998 to 61,356 (+4.0%)
- Mpumalanga: 30,105 to 35,044 (+16.4%)
- North West: 34,197 to 34,207 (+0.03%)
- Western Cape: 62,467 to 63,548 (+1.7%)
The Northern Cape remains the smallest contributor, with enrolments rising marginally from 12,548 in 2023 to 12,699 in 2024.
The data also highlighted a divide between high-performing colleges and those struggling to meet targets.
Top performers included:
- Motheo TVET College (Free State): 19,222 students in 2024 against a target of 15,238,
- Central Johannesburg TVET College: 17,953 against 11,505,
- Ekurhuleni East TVET College: 16,568 against 9,638,
- Lephalale TVET College: 3,174 against 2,110,
- Flavius Mareka TVET College also stood out, enrolling 11,480 students against a plan of 5,652, achieving 203% of its intended capacity.
However, several colleges that had been struggling, including South West Gauteng TVET College, missed targets by thousands over multiple years. Majuba TVET College recorded major shortfalls, including nearly 8,000 students below target in 2022; Northern Cape Urban TVET College achieved only 4,906 enrolments against a target of 8,993 in 2022; and Umfolozi TVET College also recorded significant gaps.
The minister cautioned that many 2025/26 figures currently reflect underperformance due to incomplete data validation across campuses.
TimesLIVE
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