Romney faces challenge in conservative South Carolina

08 January 2012 - 02:28 By Reuters
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COMMON TOUCH: Republican hopeful Mitt Romney looks on as his wife, Ann, addresses supporters Picture: REUTERS
COMMON TOUCH: Republican hopeful Mitt Romney looks on as his wife, Ann, addresses supporters Picture: REUTERS

EVEN as the Republican presidential candidates fight it out in New Hampshire, a bigger showdown is looming in South Carolina, a conservative state with a history of nasty politics and picking winners.

EVEN as the Republican presidential candidates fight it out in New Hampshire, a bigger showdown is looming in South Carolina, a conservative state with a history of nasty politics and picking winners.

The state's primary on January 21 - 11 days after New Hampshire - could be the last stand for conservatives hoping to stop more moderate front-runner Mitt Romney, who is likely to roll into South Carolina off consecutive wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he has a big lead in polls.

A Romney win in South Carolina could essentially wrap up the nomination early, but a victory by a conservative like Rick Santorum would give the Republican Party's right wing a long-sought saviour to rally around in a race that moves on to Florida and other states.

The state's strategic importance was evident on Thursday, when Romney left New Hampshire for a 24-hour visit to South Carolina to campaign with governor Nikki Haley and Arizona senator John McCain, who have endorsed him.

Texas governor Rick Perry also headed to South Carolina to make a pitch to his fellow Southerners and conservatives.

"South Carolina is a place that I feel very comfortable," Perry said this week, adding that he looked forward to leaving "quirky" Iowa and talking to "real Republicans" there.

South Carolina, which has backed the Republican White House winner every year since the primary's inception in 1980, has a history of ugly and decisive primary battles.

"If you like your politics to be Sunday-school nice and polite, this isn't the place for you," said Republican strategist David Woodard.

The brutal 2000 fight between George W Bush and McCain, which featured a rash of anonymous anti-McCain smears, was vital in Bush's march to the White House. In 2008, McCain beat back a challenge from rival Mike Huckabee that helped him clinch the nomination.

As the moderate former governor of Massachusetts, Romney faces a tough challenge in South Carolina even if he does ride a wave of momentum after New Hampshire. He was fourth in the state in 2008 with 15%.

Romney has had trouble winning over conservatives unhappy with his past support for abortion rights and for a Massachusetts health-care plan that became a model for Obama's federal overhaul.

South Carolina Republican primary voters in 2008 were overwhelmingly conservative and religious, with exit polls showing nearly two-thirds attended church at least once a week and seven in 10 believed abortion should be illegal.

But as many as 500000 Republicans are expected to vote in South Carolina's contest, compared to 120000 in Iowa, making the state a more diverse and representative slice of party voters.

"This state has a mix of Republican voters unlike any other, and it's made for retail politics," said former state party chairman Katon Dawson, now Perry's state chairman.

South Carolina's unemployment rate of 9,9% - higher than the national average and worse than all but seven other states - could make voters more receptive to Romney's pitch that as a former businessman he knows how to create jobs.

Perry's decision to stay in the race also should benefit Romney, helping to keep the conservative vote split among Perry, Santorum, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and US congressman Ron Paul.

"You are going to have a bunch of people splitting up the conservative vote like in Iowa, and that gives Romney a chance to put together a coalition that could win," said South Carolina-based strategist Jim Dyke. "If Romney wins, he can close the deal."

The latest polls showed Gingrich with a double-digit lead over Romney. But those polls were taken before he fell back to the pack under a wave of negative attack ads.

Santorum is in a position to bring together the conservative vote. But neither Santorum nor Gingrich will have the resources to compete with wealthy Romney, who can flood the airwaves with television ads in the run-up to the vote.

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