Putin misjudged Ukraine but will persist, US spy chief says

09 March 2022 - 11:44 By Chris Strohm
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US intelligence agencies assess that Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of military challenges, while Russian forces are operating “with reckless disregard“ for civilians in Ukraine.
US intelligence agencies assess that Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of military challenges, while Russian forces are operating “with reckless disregard“ for civilians in Ukraine. 
Image: Bloomberg

Russia is likely to face “a persistent and significant insurgency” after President Vladimir Putin misjudged how the war against Ukraine would proceed but the Russian leader won’t be deterred and may try to change how he defines victory, the top US spy chief said. 

“We judge it will be especially challenging for the Russians to hold and control Ukrainian territory and install a sustainable pro-Russian regime in Kyiv,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the House Intelligence Committee Tuesday during an annual hearing on global threats.

US intelligence agencies assess that Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine’s resistance and the degree of military challenges, while Russian forces are operating “with reckless disregard” for civilians in Ukraine. 

Regardless, Putin remains determined to control and dominate Ukraine as he’s been “stewing in a combustible combination of grievance and ambition,” CIA Director William Burns said during the hearing. 

Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said he estimated with “low confidence” that Russia has lost 2,000 to 4,000 troops so far in the conflict. 

Though the war in Ukraine dominated the early testimony, the formal threat assessment presented by US intelligence agencies was prepared before Russia’s invasion.

The 31-page declassified version warns that China is developing one of the greatest nuclear weapons forces in history.

It also says Iran will continue to threaten American interests as it seeks to erode US influence in the Middle East. At the same time, North Korea is committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile development, according to the assessment. 

“In the coming year, the US and its allies will face an increasingly complex and interconnected global security environment marked by the growing spectre of great power competition and conflict, while collective, transnational threats to all nations and actors compete for our attention and finite resources,” according to the document.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

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