11 counties to watch in US presidential election

Seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are expected to play a decisive role in Tuesday's US presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump.

Here are 11 counties to watch in those states with estimated vote tallies by Edison Research early on Wednesday morning. Early results based on partial returns may not be predictive of the final vote tallies in the counties.

MARICOPA COUNTY, ARIZONA

Home to Phoenix, Maricopa County is key to winning the southwestern state as it makes up about 60% of the statewide vote. In the 2020 election, Democratic President Joe Biden won the county by 2.2 percentage points, while Trump won the county by almost 3 percentage points in 2016.

In Maricopa County, where 50% of the ballots have been counted, former president Trump won 49% of the votes tallied so far and Harris won 51%.

COBB COUNTY, GEORGIA

Democrats see the large and racially diverse Cobb County in Atlanta's northern suburbs as somewhere they could pick up the large number of votes needed to win the state. That's what Biden did in 2020 when he won the county by 14 percentage points. In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton carried Cobb county by only 2 percentage points and lost the state to Trump.

With an estimated 95% of ballots in Cobb County counted, Harris was winning 57% and Trump 42%.

BALDWIN COUNTY, GEORGIA

In central Georgia, Baldwin County is much smaller than Cobb but an indicator of black voter turnout. About 40% of voters in the county are black. This is one place in Georgia where Biden's 2020 margin was narrower than Clinton's in 2016.

With nearly all ballots counted, Trump had won 51% of the votes and Harris 49%.

WASHTENAW COUNTY, MICHIGAN

Home of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Washtenaw County saw Biden take 73% of the vote in 2020. The university is the focus of a Democratic get-out-the-vote effort for young voters. Harris' ability to match Biden's performance may be affected by frustration with the administration's policies in the Middle East.

With estimates of 70% of ballots counted, Harris won 65% of the votes tallied so far to 32% for Trump.

WAKE COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina's capital, Raleigh in Wake County, has boosted statewide turnout for Democrats in recent elections. That was the case in 2020 when Biden won 65% of the vote there, not enough to keep Trump from carrying the state.

In the county, with estimates that nearly all ballots have been counted, Harris had won 62% of the votes tallied so far and Trump had won 36%.

ERIE COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA

Erie County in northwestern Pennsylvania has voted for the winner in the last four elections, including Biden in 2020, who won the county by a single percentage point. In 2016, Trump won the county by 2 points.

With estimates that 75% of ballots have been counted, Harris won 51% of the votes tallied so far and Trump won 48%.

BUCKS COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA

North of Philadelphia, Bucks County is another highly competitive county due to its large population of working-class voters. Trump has made major inroads into that demographic in his eight years on the national political stage. The former president lost the county to Biden in 2020 by 4 percentage points, handing the state to the Democrat.

With estimates that 55% of ballots have been counted, Harris won 50% of the votes tallied so far and Trump won 49%.

CUMBERLAND COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA

The suburbs of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania's capital, have supported Trump in the past two elections. But Democrats could cut the gains in Cumberland County by attracting the area's growing population of white-collar workers. In 2020, Trump won this county by 11 points.

In Cumberland County, where Edison Research reports that nearly all ballots have been counted, Trump won 54% of the votes tallied so far and Harris won 45%.

WAUKESHA COUNTY, WISCONSIN

The populous western suburbs of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, have been another stronghold for Trump in the past two campaigns, and the Republican won here by more than 20 percentage points each time. Voters in the county will need to support Trump at similar levels for the Republican to win back the state after Biden carried it in 2020.

In Waukesha County, with an estimated 95% of the ballots counted, Trump won 59% of the votes and Harris won 40%.

WAYNE COUNTY, MICHIGAN

Home to Detroit's 1.7-million residents, Wayne County is about 40% black. In 2020 Biden won here with more than 68% of the vote, helping him clinch the Midwestern state.

Polls in Wayne County closed at 8pm on Tuesday night. Edison Research has not yet reported any votes.

WASHOE COUNTY, NEVADA

In the northwestern corner of Nevada around Reno, Washoe County is less racially diverse than the Las Vegas area, but has been trending more Democratic in recent elections. Biden won this county by more than 4 percentage points in 2020.

Polls in Washoe County closed at 7pm on Tuesday night. Edison Research has not yet reported any votes.

The share of each county's vote that has been counted so far is based on estimates by Edison Research of the number of votes that are likely to be cast there.

Reuters