From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as Trump claims victory

As Republican Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, China is bracing for four more years of bitter superpower rivalry over trade, technology and security issues.

Trump showed strength across broad swathes of the country, earning a bigger share of the vote nationwide than he did four years ago, ballots showed.

Chinese strategists said while they expected more fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Trump, some said his isolationist foreign policy could give Beijing a vacuum to expand its global influence.

"Beijing anticipated a close race in the US election. Though Trump's victory is not China's preferred outcome and raises concerns, it is not entirely unexpected," said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain an appearance of a cordial personal relationship with Trump, while intensifying efforts to project China's power and strength."

Trump has proposed tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% and ending China’s most favoured nation trading status, and analysts said the prospect of a trade war has rattled China's leadership.

China sells goods worth more than $400bn (R7-trillion) annually to the US and hundreds of billions more in components for products Americans buy from elsewhere.

"Beijing is particularly wary of a potential revival of the trade war under Trump, specially as China faces significant internal economic challenges," said Zhao.

"China also expects Trump to accelerate the decoupling of technologies and supply chains, a move that could threaten China's economic growth and indirectly impact its social and political stability."

In response, China is likely to intensify its push for greater technological and economic self-sufficiency, while feeling more pressure to bolster economic ties with countries such as Russia, he said.

"Going forward, Beijing would likely be drawing up a list of clear bargains and interest tradeoffs that it could float with Washington in the hope it can focus on its much-needed domestic economic concerns while Trump's attention is occupied elsewhere," said Brian Wong, assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong who studies grand strategy.

China is likely to shore up ties with the Global South, Europe and Northeast Asian countries in the event of a Trump win, given his "transactional, isolationist, anti-globalist and anti-multilateral foreign policy", said Wong.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached a rare rapprochement last month, while Beijing has tentatively reached out to the new Japanese administration this year after years of strained relations.

"China expects the second Trump administration to further disengage from international agreements and commitments, creating opportunities for China to expand its influence in emerging power vacuums," Zhao said.

Trump has unnerved democratically governed Taiwan by saying it should pay Washington for its defence and that it had taken US semiconductor business.

"The president Joe Biden administration applied high-pressure tactics to China on Taiwan, with US troops stationed in Taiwan and even selling weapons to Taiwan in a huge break with the former Trump administration's Taiwan policy," said Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai.

"Trump is not too likely to give Taiwan the same support in future."

Reuters