No rush for US energy as Asia’s imports slip under Trump

Asian countries aren't rushing to buy US energy commodities, even though lifting imports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and coal will help meet President Donald Trump's demand for lower trade surpluses.

While rare earths may be the immediate talking point in talks between the Trump administration and China, the real action behind any deal will be in the big three energy commodities.

The same is true for other Asian economies seeking to curry favour with Trump and get a better deal than the hefty tariffs imposed on many in his “Liberation Day” measures announced on April 2, and subsequently paused for 90 days.

However, in the four months since Trump returned to the White House, Asia's imports of US energy commodities have fallen from the same period last year.

Imports of crude oil from February to May declined to 1.53-million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.55-million bpd in the same period in 2024, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler.

Asia's imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) were 4.78-million metric tons in the February to May period, down 40% from the 8.04-million tonnes in the same four months last year.

Arrivals of all grades of coal were 13.79-million tonnes in the four-month period, down from 14.19-million tonnes from February to May last year.

What the numbers show is that Asia, the world's top commodity importing region, isn't increasing its purchases of US commodities.

What the numbers don't show is that within the broader picture there are some dynamics at work that show that some Asian countries may be in the early stages of trying to ramp up imports of US energy.

India is buying more from the US, with Kpler estimating imports of 253,000 bpd of crude oil in the four months from February to May, up from 175,000 bpd over the same period last year.

June crude arrivals are forecast by Kpler to be 439,000 bpd, which would be the second-highest monthly total on record.

While US oil is less than 10% of India's total imports, that it is rising in what is a competitive market for pricing may indicate a desire to do more trade with the US.

India has also been buying more US coal, with Kpler data showing imports of 3.1-million tonnes in May, the highest on record.

India's imports of US coal were 8.82-million tonnes in the four months from February to May, up 12% from the 7.85-million tonnes for the same period last year.

Similar to crude, US coal is a small percentage of India's total coal imports, but the rising imports are worth noting given US coal has a more costly freight component than its competitors from Indonesia, Australia and SA.

Outside India, other Asian coal importers haven't been increasing shipments from the US, with second-biggest buyer Japan importing 1.75-million tonnes in the February to May period, down from 2.15-million tonnes for the same months in 2024.

Japan has also been buying less US LNG, with only 1.04-million tonnes arriving from February to May, down from 1.75-million tonnes for the same period in 2024.

The drop in shipments of US LNG to Asia is most likely price-related as higher spot prices have seen cargoes move to Europe, which is using LNG to refill natural gas storages depleted during the northern winter.

The loss of China as a market for US LNG amid the ongoing tariff war has also hurt US volumes to Asia, with Kpler showing no cargoes arrived in the world's biggest buyer of the super-chilled fuel in March, April and May.

China's imports of US coal have also dropped to almost zero, with only one cargo of about 35,000 tonnes arriving in May, while no crude was imported in May.

Outside India, the only other major importer in Asia that has increased its purchases of US energy is South Korea, with imports of crude rising to the second-highest on record in May at 593,000 bpd.

South Korea has also lifted its imports of US LNG in recent months, with May's 560,000 tonnes the highest since October last year, with Kpler forecasting another increase in June to 570,000 tonnes.

However, the overall picture is that Asia's commodity importers are largely holding back on increasing imports of US energy.

It may be the case that they are planning on using imports as leverage in talks with the Trump administration, or it may also be that the delivered prices of US crude, coal and LNG are not competitive.

However, at the moment buying more US energy to lower trade surpluses is not yet a thing in Asia.

 - The author is an Asian commodities and energy columnist

Reuters