Wall Street sees multibillion-dollar debut for Lilly’s obesity pill

Eli Lilly’s newly approved weight-loss pill is expected to generate billions in sales as soon as this year, with analysts betting it will quickly narrow Novo Nordisk’s head start in the oral market.

Brokerages estimate 2026 sales of $1.5bn to $2.8bn (R25bn to R47bn) of Lilly’s orforglipron, branded Foundayo, with the wide range reflecting both an expectation of strong demand and uncertainty around the early stages of the launch.

Among the more bullish forecasts on Wall Street is Bernstein, which estimates the drug could generate $2bn to $2.5bn in its first full year. Citi analysts are even more upbeat, projecting about $2.8bn in 2026 revenue and seeing peak annual sales exceeding $40bn.

More conservative estimates include those from Guggenheim Partners, which projects about $1.5bn for 2026.

But even at the lower end, the pill is expected to reshape the competitive landscape.

UBS estimates that Lilly’s drug and Novo’s oral version of Wegovy together will generate about $5bn in 2026, signalling the emergence of a sizable new oral class.

Foundayo comes with easier manufacturing and fewer dosing restrictions, positioning it as a strong challenger to Novo.

Strong demand for oral options and scalability advantages could help Foundayo become the leading pill option, especially internationally, JP Morgan analysts said, forecasting sales to surge to $6bn by 2027.

However, early uptake may be tempered by launch dynamics.

Bernstein analysts noted that free sampling, lower initial dosing and pricing adjustments could weigh on near-term revenue even as prescription volumes ramp up. Weekly new-patient starts will be closely watched by the market as a key indicator of trajectory, they added.

The launch also comes as Novo’s oral Wegovy benefits from first-mover advantage and brand recognition, helping it capture early adopters in the market.

In the long term, analysts see oral drugs expanding the reach of obesity treatments. Morningstar estimates obesity pills could account for about a third of a projected $180bn global market by 2034.

Reuters